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Social distress and (some) relief: Estimating the impact of pandemic job loss on poverty in South Africa

Author

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  • Ihsaan Bassier
  • Joshua Budlender
  • Maya Goldman

Abstract

Up-to-date, nationally representative household income/expenditure data are crucial to estimating poverty during the COVID-19 pandemic and to policy-making more broadly, but South Africa lacks such data. We present new pandemic poverty estimates, simulating incomes in pre-pandemic household surveys using contemporary labour market data to account for job losses between 2020 Q1 and 2021 Q4. Improving on much of the existing literature, we use observed rather than simulated shocks and allow for uneven impacts of the pandemic by employment sector and demographic characteristics.

Suggested Citation

  • Ihsaan Bassier & Joshua Budlender & Maya Goldman, 2022. "Social distress and (some) relief: Estimating the impact of pandemic job loss on poverty in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-80, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2022-80
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maya Goldman & Ihsaan Bassier & Joshua Budlender & Lindi Mzankomo & Ingrid Woolard & Murray Leibbrandt, 2021. "Simulation of options to replace the special COVID-19 Social Relief of Distress grant and close the poverty gap at the food poverty line," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-165, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2020. "Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock: Evidence from real time surveys," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    3. Adams-Prassl, A. & Boneva, T. & Golin, M & Rauh, C., 2020. "Inequality in the Impact of the Coronavirus Shock: New Survey Evidence for the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2023, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Decerf, Benoit & Ferreira, Francisco H.G. & Mahler, Daniel G. & Sterck, Olivier, 2021. "Lives and livelihoods: Estimates of the global mortality and poverty effects of the Covid-19 pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Andrew Kerr, 2018. "Job Flows, Worker Flows and Churning in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(S1), pages 141-166, January.
    6. Gonzalo Gómez Bengoechea, 2020. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Income Distribution Under Different Protection Schemes: the Case of Spain," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 102, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    7. Vimal Ranchhod & Reza Che Daniels, 2021. "Labour Market Dynamics in South Africa at the Onset of the COVID‐19 Pandemic," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(1), pages 44-62, March.
    8. Surjit Bhalla & Karan Bhasin & Mr. Arvind Virmani, 2022. "Pandemic, Poverty, and Inequality: Evidence from India," IMF Working Papers 2022/069, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Köhler, Timothy & Bhorat, Haroon & Hill, Robert & Stanwix, Benjamin, 2023. "Lockdown stringency and employment formality: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 57, pages 1-3.
    2. Haroon Bhorat & Timothy Köhler & David de Villiers, 2023. "Can Cash Transfers to the Unemployed Support Economic Activity? Evidence from South Africa," Working Papers 202301, University of Cape Town, Development Policy Research Unit.
    3. Maya Goldman & Ntuthuko Hlela, 2024. "Tax financing options for new social protection instruments: The equity implications of taxing more to expand the South African social security system," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2024-56, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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