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The impact of the correlation between health expenditure and survival probability on the demand for insurance

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  • Kai Zhao

    (University of Connecticut)

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of health shocks on the demand for health insurance and annuities, along with precautionary saving in a dynamic life-cycle model. I argue that when the health shock can simultaneously increase health expenses and reduce longevity, rational agents would neither fully insure their uncertain health expenses nor fully annuitize their wealth because the correlation between health expenses and longevity provides a self insurance channel for both uncertainties. That is, when the agent is hit by a health shock (which simultaneously increases health expenses and reduces longevity), she can use the resources originally saved for consumption in the reduced period of life to pay for the increased health expenses. Since the two uncertainties partially offset each other, the precautionary saving generated in the model should be smaller than in a standard model without the correlation between health expenses and longevity. In a quantitative life-cycle model calibrated using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey dataset, I find that the health expenses are highly correlated with the survival probabilities, and this correlation significantly reduces the demand for actuarially-fair health insurance, while its impact on the demand for annuities and precautionary saving is relatively small.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Zhao, 2014. "The impact of the correlation between health expenditure and survival probability on the demand for insurance," Working papers 2014-37, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2014-37
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    Cited by:

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    2. Lee, Hyun & Zhao, Kai & Zou, Fei, 2022. "Does the early retirement policy really benefit women?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 330-345.
    3. İmrohoroğlu, Ayşe & Zhao, Kai, 2018. "The chinese saving rate: Long-term care risks, family insurance, and demographics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 33-52.
    4. Lambregts, Timo R. & Schut, Frederik T., 2020. "Displaced, disliked and misunderstood: A systematic review of the reasons for low uptake of long-term care insurance and life annuities," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    5. Wookjae Heo & Eun Jin Kwak & John Grable & Hye Jun Park, 2024. "Ownership of Cash Value Life Insurance among Rural Households: Utilization of Machine Learning Algorithms to Find Predictors," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-27, August.
    6. Holzmann, Robert & Ayuso, Mercedes & Alaminos, Estefanía & Bravo, Jorge Miguel, 2019. "Life Cycle Saving and Dissaving Revisited across Three-Tiered Income Groups: Starting Hypotheses, Refinement through Literature Review, and Ideas for Empirical Testing," IZA Discussion Papers 12655, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Chai Jian & Xing Limin & Yang Ying & Lai Kin Keung, 2016. "Does Medical Insurance Improve Household Consumption in China? — A Re-analysis Based on Meta Regression Analysis," Journal of Systems Science and Information, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 235-243, June.
    8. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Gomes, Diego B.P., 2017. "Health care reform or more affordable health care?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 126-153.
    9. Zhao, Kai, 2017. "Social insurance, private health insurance and individual welfare," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 102-117.
    10. Lim, Kyoung Mook, 2020. "Public provision of health insurance and aggregate saving in an overlapping generations model with endogenous health risk: The South Korean case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 233-246.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Health Insurance; Annuities; Precautionary Saving;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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