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Accounting Noise and the Pricing of Cocos

Author

Listed:
  • Mike Derksen

    (KdVI, UvA)

  • Peter Spreij

    (KdVI, UvA; Radboud University Nijmegen)

  • Sweder van Wijnbergen

    (UvA; CEPR)

Abstract

Contingent Convertible bonds (CoCos) are debt instruments that convert into equity or are written down in times of distress. Existing pricing models assume conversion triggers based on market prices and on the assumption that markets can always observe all relevant firm information. But all Cocos issued sofar have triggers based on accounting ratios and/or regulatory intervention. We incorporate that markets receive information through noisy accounting reports issued at discrete intervals, which allows us to distinguish between market and accounting values, and between automatic triggers and regulator-mandated conversions. Our second contribution is to incorporate that coupon payments are contingent too: their payment is conditional on the maxumum Distributable Amount not being exceeded. We examine the impact of CoCo design parameters, asset volatility and accounting noise on the price of a CoCo; and investigate the interaction between CoCo design features, the capital structure of the issuing bank and their implications for risk taking and investment incentives. Finally, we use our model to explain the crash in coco prices after Deutsche Bank's profit warning february 2016.

Suggested Citation

  • Mike Derksen & Peter Spreij & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2018. "Accounting Noise and the Pricing of Cocos," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-037/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20180037
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Damiano Brigo & João Garcia & Nicola Pede, 2015. "Coco Bonds Pricing With Credit And Equity Calibrated First-Passage Firm Value Models," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-31.
    2. Kiewiet, Gera & van Lelyveld, Iman Paul Pieter & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2017. "Contingent Convertibles: Can the Market handle them?," CEPR Discussion Papers 12359, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    4. Avdjiev, Stefan & Bogdanova, Bilyana & Bolton, Patrick & Jiang, Wei & Kartasheva, Anastasia, 2020. "CoCo issuance and bank fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 593-613.
    5. Nan Chen & Paul Glasserman & Behzad Nouri & Markus Pelger, 2013. "CoCos, Bail-In, and Tail Risk," Working Papers 13-01, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    6. Stephanie Chan & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2016. "Coco Design, Risk Shifting Incentives and Capital Regulation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-007/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 13 Nov 2017.
    7. Charles W. Calomiris & Richard J. Herring, 2013. "How to Design a Contingent Convertible Debt Requirement That Helps Solve Our Too-Big-to-Fail Problem," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 25(2), pages 39-62, June.
    8. Nan Chen & Paul Glasserman & Behzad Nouri & Markus Pelger, 2013. "CoCos, Bail-In, and Tail Risk," Working Papers 13-04, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    9. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    10. Suresh Sundaresan & Zhenyu Wang, 2015. "On the Design of Contingent Capital with a Market Trigger," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(2), pages 881-920, April.
    11. Paul Glasserman & Behzad Nouri, 2012. "Contingent Capital with a Capital-Ratio Trigger," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(10), pages 1816-1833, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Oster, 2020. "Contingent Convertible bond literature review: making everything and nothing possible?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 343-381, December.
    2. Ioana Neamtu, 2020. "Multiple buffer CoCos and their impact on financial stability," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-010/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Fatouh, Mahmoud & Neamțu, Ioana & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2021. "Risk-taking and uncertainty: do contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds increase the risk appetite of banks?," Bank of England working papers 938, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contingent capital pricing; accounting noise; Coco triggers; Coco design; risk taking incentives; investment incentives;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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