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Inflation in South Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Inflation Models

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  • Johannes W. Fedderke
  • Yang Liu

Abstract

We consider the relative empirical performance of a range of inflation models for South Africa. Model coverage is of Phillips-curve, New Keynesian Phillips curve, monetarist, and structural models of inflation. Our core findings are that the single most robust covariate of inflation is unit labour cost. We further decompose unit labour cost into changes in […]

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  • Johannes W. Fedderke & Yang Liu, 2016. "Inflation in South Africa: An Assessment of Alternative Inflation Models," Working Papers 592, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    • Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:592
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    Cited by:

    1. Merrino, Serena, 2022. "Monetary policy and wage inequality in South Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Chloe Allison & Neryvia Pillay, 2024. "Cash transfers and prices what is the impact of social welfare on prices," Working Papers 11057, South African Reserve Bank.
    3. Alain Kabundi & Asi Mbelu, 2018. "Has the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through changed in South Africa?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 339-360, September.
    4. Tumisang Loate & Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Nicola Viegi, 2021. "Sailing into the Wind evaluating the near future of Monetary Policy in South Africa," Working Papers 11006, South African Reserve Bank.
    5. Dladla, Pholile & Malikane, Christopher, 2022. "Inflation dynamics in an emerging market: The case of South Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 262-271.
    6. Christopher Loewald & David Faulkner & Konstantin Makrelov, 2020. "Time consistency and economic growth a case study of south african macroeconomic policy," Working Papers 10421, South African Reserve Bank.
    7. Christopher Loewald & Nic Spearman Andreas Wrgtter, 2023. "Less sacrifice from collective to competitive price coordination in the South African economy," Working Papers 11049, South African Reserve Bank.
    8. Hartwig, Jochen, 2020. "Not Evidence for Baumol’s Cost Disease. A Reply to Atanda and Reed (International Journal for Re-Views in Empirical Economics, 2020)," International Journal for Re-Views in Empirical Economics (IREE), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 4(2020-3), pages 1-4.
    9. Byron Botha & Lauren Kuhn & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Is the Phillips curve framework still useful for understanding inflation dynamics in South Africa," Working Papers 10211, South African Reserve Bank.
    10. Tumala, Mohammed M & Olubusoye, Olusanya E & Yaaba, Baba N & Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Akanbi, Olawale B, 2017. "Forecasting Nigerian Inflation using Model Averaging methods: Modelling Frameworks to Central Banks," MPRA Paper 88754, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2018.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Monetary Policy; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation

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