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Autonomous demand and economic growth: some empirical evidence

Author

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  • Girardi , Daniele

    (University of Siena)

  • Pariboni, Riccardo

    (University of Siena)

Abstract

According to the Sraffian supermultiplier model, economic growth is driven by autonomous demand (exports, public spending and autonomous consumption). This paper tests empirically some major implications of the model. For this purpose, we calculate time-series of the autonomous components of aggregate demand and of the supermultiplier for the US, France, Germany, Italy and Spain and describe their patterns in recent decades. Changes in output and in autonomous demand are tightly correlated, both in the long and in the short-run. The supermultiplier is substantially higher and more stable in the US, while in the European countries it is lower and decreasing. Where the supermultiplier is reasonably stable - i.e., in the US since the 1960s - autonomous demand and output share a common long-run trend (i.e, they are cointegrated). The estimation of a Vector Error-Correction model (VECM) on US data suggests that autonomous demand exerts a long-run effect on GDP, but also that there is simultaneous causality between the two variables. We then estimate the multiplier of autono-mous spending through a panel instrumental-variables approach, finding that a one dollar increase in autonomous demand raises output by 1.6 dollars over four years. A further implication of the model that we test against em-pirical evidence is that increases in autonomous demand growth tend to be followed by increases in the invest-ment share. We find that this is the case in all five countries. An additional 1% increase in autonomous demand raises the investment share by 0.57 percentage points of GDP in the long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Girardi , Daniele & Pariboni, Riccardo, 2015. "Autonomous demand and economic growth: some empirical evidence," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP13, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:sraffa:0013
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniele Girardi & Riccardo Pariboni, 2019. "Normal utilization as the adjusting variable in Neo‐Kaleckian growth models: A critique," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(2), pages 341-358, May.
    2. Sergio Cesaratto, 2017. "Beyond the traditional monetary circuit: endogenous money, finance and the theory of long-period effective demand," Department of Economics University of Siena 757, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    3. Ettore Gallo & Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes, 2023. "Investment, autonomous demand and long-run capacity utilization: an empirical test for the Euro Area," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(1), pages 225-255, April.
    4. Lídia Brochier & Antonio Carlos, 2019. "A supermultiplier Stock-Flow Consistent model: the “return” of the paradoxes of thrift and costs in the long run?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 43(2), pages 413-442.
    5. Mauro Caminati & Serena Sordi, 2019. "Demand‐led growth with endogenous innovation," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 405-422, July.
    6. Pariboni, Riccardo & Girardi, Daniele, 2018. "A(nother) Note on the Inconsistency of Neo-Kaleckian Growth Models," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP31, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    7. Arkadiusz J. Derkacz, 2020. "Autonomous Expenditure Multipliers and Gross Value Added," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, September.
    8. Daniele Girardi & Riccardo Pariboni, 2020. "Autonomous demand and the investment share," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(3), pages 428-453, July.
    9. Brochier, Lidia & Macedo e Silva, Antonio Carlos, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Consumption: State-of-Art and Prospects for the Heterodox Future Research," MPRA Paper 92672, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Effective Demand; Supermultiplier;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B51 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Socialist; Marxian; Sraffian
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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