IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed012/1038.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reconstructing the Great Recession

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Boldrin

    (Washington University in St Louis)

Abstract

This paper uses a simple general equilibrium models with residential investment and input-output structure to illustrate the effects of demand shocks in the productive economy. A decline in the demand for homes generates a readjustment of the portfolio, and a decline in the demand of intermediate inputs, this depreoves the real side of the economy and generates a significant decline in employment and real activity. The effects are significant even when the shock is transitory.

Suggested Citation

  • Michele Boldrin, 2012. "Reconstructing the Great Recession," 2012 Meeting Papers 1038, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:1038
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2012/paper_1038.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Nan & Martin, Vance L., 2019. "Real sectoral spillovers: A dynamic factor analysis of the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 77-95.
    2. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    3. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jiri Slacalek, 2011. "How Large Are Housing and Financial Wealth Effects? A New Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 55-79, February.
    4. Case Karl E. & Quigley John M. & Shiller Robert J., 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-34, May.
    5. Boldrin, Michael & Horvath, Michael, 1995. "Labor Contracts and Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(5), pages 972-1004, October.
    6. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2007. "Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 44-59, November.
    7. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    8. Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2014. "Did Housing Policies Cause the Postwar Boom in Home Ownership?," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and Mortgage Markets in Historical Perspective, pages 351-385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2019. "A Macroeconomic Framework for Quantifying Systemic Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 1-37, October.
    10. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2019. "Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(5), pages 2049-2103.
    11. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 255-296, March.
    12. Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2009. "Accounting For Changes In The Homeownership Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 677-726, August.
    13. Black, Fischer, 1995. "Interest Rates as Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1371-1376, December.
    14. Ohanian, Lee E. & Raffo, Andrea, 2012. "Aggregate hours worked in OECD countries: New measurement and implications for business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 40-56.
    15. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    16. Robert E. Hall, 2011. "The Long Slump," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(2), pages 431-469, April.
    17. Richard K. Green & Stephen Malpezzi & Stephen K. Mayo, 2005. "Metropolitan-Specific Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Supply of Housing, and Their Sources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 334-339, May.
    18. Song, In Ho, 2010. "House Prices and Consumption," MPRA Paper 27481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Carlos Garriga & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2012. "A model of price swings in the housing market," Working Papers 2012-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    20. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123.
    21. Atalay, Enghin & Drautzburg, Thorsten & Wang, Zhenting, 2018. "Accounting for the sources of macroeconomic tail risks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 65-69.
    22. Iacoviello, Matteo & Pavan, Marina, 2013. "Housing and debt over the life cycle and over the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 221-238.
    23. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl & Joseph B. Steinberg, 2018. "Global Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 761-796.
    24. Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Tao Zha, 2013. "Land‐Price Dynamics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(3), pages 1147-1184, May.
    25. Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2011. "Sectoral shocks, reallocation frictions, and optimal government spending," Working Papers 2011-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    26. Marjorie Flavin & Shinobu Nakagawa, 2008. "A Model of Housing in the Presence of Adjustment Costs: A Structural Interpretation of Habit Persistence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 474-495, March.
    27. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    28. McDonald, John F., 1981. "Capital-land substitution in urban housing: A survey of empirical estimates," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 190-211, March.
    29. Boldrin, Michele & Deneckere, Raymond J., 1990. "Sources of complex dynamics in two-sector growth models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 627-653, October.
    30. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    31. Robert F. Martin, 2005. "The baby boom: predictability in house prices and interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 847, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1979. "On the Uniqueness of Steady States in an Economy with Heterogeneous Capital Goods," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 20(1), pages 59-82, February.
    33. Robert J. Shiller, 2007. "Understanding recent trends in house prices and homeownership," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-123.
    34. Michael Keane & Richard Rogerson, 2015. "Reconciling Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: A Structural Perspective," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 89-117, August.
    35. Dupor, Bill, 1999. "Aggregation and irrelevance in multi-sector models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 391-409, April.
    36. Michael Keane & Richard Rogerson, 2015. "Reconciling Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: A Structural Perspective," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 89-117, 08.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The construction sector is key to the business cycle
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-04-09 19:10:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elenev, Vadim & Landvoigt, Tim & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2016. "Phasing out the GSEs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 111-132.
    2. Ha Nguyen & Shawheen Rezaei & Divya Agarwal, 2022. "The great recession and job loss spillovers: impact of tradable employment shocks on supporting services," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 68(3), pages 789-815, June.
    3. Pedro Gete, 2015. "Housing demands, savings gluts and current account dynamics," Globalization Institute Working Papers 221, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Daniel I. García, 2018. "Employment in the Great Recession : How Important Were Household Credit Supply Shocks?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2014. "A guide to tracking the U.S. economy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 96(1), pages 35-54.
    6. Li, Nan & Martin, Vance L., 2019. "Real sectoral spillovers: A dynamic factor analysis of the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 77-95.
    7. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 753-811, Elsevier.
    8. Jeffrey P. Cohen & Cletus C. Coughlin & David A. Lopez, 2012. "The boom and bust of U.S. housing prices from various geographic perspectives," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 341-368.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    2. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 753-811, Elsevier.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. Liu, Zheng & Miao, Jianjun & Zha, Tao, 2016. "Land prices and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 86-105.
    5. Carlos Garriga & Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2012. "A model of price swings in the housing market," Working Papers 2012-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    6. Matthew Rognlie & Andrei Shleifer & Alp Simsek, 2018. "Investment Hangover and the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 113-153, April.
    7. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_016, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    8. Finn E. Kydland & Peter Rupert & Roman Sustek, 2012. "Housing Dynamics over the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 18432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2015. "Household leveraging and deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 3-20, January.
    10. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
    11. Carlos Garriga, 2010. "The Role of Construction in the Housing Boom and Bust in Spain," Working Papers 2010-09, FEDEA.
    12. Zhou, Jing, 2022. "Collateral quality and house prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    13. Makoto Nakajima, 2011. "Understanding house-price dynamics," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q2, pages 20-28.
    14. Ivan Jaccard, 2010. "Asset Pricing and Housing Supply in a Production Economy," 2010 Meeting Papers 605, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Matthias S. Hertweck & Vivien Lewis & Stefania Villa, 2021. "Going the Extra Mile: Effort by Workers and Job‐Seekers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 2099-2127, December.
    16. Batini, Nicoletta & Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Fiscal buffers, private debt, and recession: The good, the bad and the ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    17. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "Information heterogeneity, housing dynamics and the business cycle," EconStor Preprints 168561, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    18. Yanbin Chen & Fangxing Li & Zhesheng Qiu, 2013. "Housing and Saving with Finance Imperfection," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 207-248, May.
    19. Daniel L. Tortorice, 2019. "Long-Run Expectations, Learning and the US Housing Market," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 497-531, October.
    20. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2019. "Credit Supply and the Housing Boom," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1317-1350.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed012:1038. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.