IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/95031.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating the Armington Elasticity: The Importance of Data Choice and Publication Bias

Author

Listed:
  • Bajzik, Jozef
  • Havranek, Tomas
  • Irsova, Zuzana
  • Schwarz, Jiri

Abstract

A key parameter in international economics is the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods, also called the Armington elasticity. Yet estimates vary widely. We collect 3,524 reported estimates of the elasticity, construct 34 variables that reflect the context in which researchers obtain their estimates, and examine what drives the heterogeneity in the results. To account for inherent model uncertainty, we employ Bayesian and frequentist model averaging. We present the first application of newly developed non-linear techniques to correct for publication bias. Our main results are threefold. First, there is publication bias against small and statistically insignificant elasticities. Second, differences in results are best explained by differences in data: aggregation, frequency, size, and dimension. Third, the mean elasticity implied by the literature after correcting for both publication bias and potential misspecifications is 3.

Suggested Citation

  • Bajzik, Jozef & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Schwarz, Jiri, 2019. "Estimating the Armington Elasticity: The Importance of Data Choice and Publication Bias," MPRA Paper 95031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:95031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/95031/1/MPRA_paper_95031.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. T.D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2010. "Picture This: A Simple Graph That Reveals Much Ado About Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 170-191, February.
    2. Lukas Mohler & Michael Seitz, 2012. "The gains from variety in the European Union," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(3), pages 475-500, September.
    3. McDaniel, Christine A. & Balistreri, Edward J., 2002. "A Discussion on Armington Trade Substitution Elasticities," Working Papers 15856, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Economics.
    4. Liisa Saikkonen, 2015. "Estimation of substitution and transformation elasticities for South African trade," WIDER Working Paper Series 104, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Auer, Raphael A. & Schoenle, Raphael S., 2016. "Market structure and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 60-77.
    6. Schürenberg-Frosch, Hannah, 2015. "We could not care less about Armington elasticities - but should we? A meta-sensitivity analysis of the influence of Armington elasticity misspecification on simulation results," Ruhr Economic Papers 594, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Xiao-guang Zhang & George Verikios, 2006. "Armington Parameter Estimation for a Computable General Equilibrium Model: A Database Consistent Approach," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 06-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    8. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Irsova, Zuzana & Rusnak, Marek, 2015. "Cross-country heterogeneity in intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 100-118.
    9. Furukawa, Chishio, 2019. "Publication Bias under Aggregation Frictions: Theory, Evidence, and a New Correction Method," EconStor Preprints 194798, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. Timothy J. Kehoe & Pau S. Pujolàs & Jack Rossbach, 2017. "Quantitative Trade Models: Developments and Challenges," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 295-325, September.
    11. Parsley, David C. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2001. "Explaining the border effect: the role of exchange rate variability, shipping costs, and geography," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 87-105, October.
    12. Abel Brodeur & Mathias Lé & Marc Sangnier & Yanos Zylberberg, 2016. "Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-32, January.
    13. Stanley, T. D. & Jarrell, Stephen B. & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2010. "Could It Be Better to Discard 90% of the Data? A Statistical Paradox," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 64(1), pages 70-77.
    14. David Card & Jochen Kluve & Andrea Weber, 2018. "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 894-931.
    15. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains From Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585.
    16. Sauquet, Alexandre & Lecocq, Franck & Delacote, Philippe & Caurla, Sylvain & Barkaoui, Ahmed & Garcia, Serge, 2011. "Estimating Armington elasticities for sawnwood and application to the French Forest Sector Model," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 771-781.
    17. Theo S. Eicher & Chris Papageorgiou & Adrian E. Raftery, 2011. "Default priors and predictive performance in Bayesian model averaging, with application to growth determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 30-55, January/F.
    18. Peter Lloyd & Xiao-guang Zhang, 2006. "The Armington Model," Staff Working Papers 0602, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    19. Holger C. Wolf, 2000. "Intranational Home Bias In Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 555-563, November.
    20. Karen Turner & Soo Jung Ha & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings & Peter Mcgregor & Kim Swales, 2012. "Econometric Estimation Of Armington Import Elasticities For A Regional Cge Model Of The Illinois Economy," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, April.
    21. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
    22. Aspalter, Lisa, 2016. "Estimating Industry-level Armington Elasticities For EMU Countries," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 217, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    23. Paul R. Bergin, 2017. "How Well Can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics Explain the Exchange Rate and Current Account?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 5, pages 117-152, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    24. Chris M. Alaouze & John S. Marsden & John Zeitsch, 1977. "Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution Between Imported and Domestically Produced Commodities at the Four Digit ASIC Level," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers o-11, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    25. Shahram M. Amini & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2012. "Comparison Of Model Averaging Techniques: Assessing Growth Determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 870-876, August.
    26. Tomáš Havránek, 2015. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution: The Importance Of Method Choices And Selective Reporting," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(6), pages 1180-1204, December.
    27. Edward J. Balistreri & Ayed Al-Qahtani & Carol A. Dahl, 2010. "Oil and Petroleum Product Armington Elasticities: A New-Geography-of-Trade Approach to Estimation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 167-180.
    28. Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson, 1999. "Explaining Armington: What Determines Substitutability Between Home and Foreign Goods?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-21, February.
    29. Clinton R. Shiells & Kenneth A. Reinert, 1993. "Armington Models and Terms-of-Trade Effects: Some Econometric Evidence for North America," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 299-316, May.
    30. Shigekazu Kawashima & Deffi Ayu Puspito Sari, 2010. "Time-varying Armington elasticity and country-of-origin bias: from the dynamic perspective of the Japanese demand for beef imports," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(1), pages 27-41, January.
    31. Ivanova Nadezhda, 2005. "Estimation of own- and cross-price elasticities of disaggregated imported and domestic goods in Russia," EERC Working Paper Series 05-13e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    32. Kawashima, Shigekazu & Sari, Deffi Ayu Puspito, 2010. "Time-varying Armington elasticity and country-of-origin bias: from the dynamic perspective of the Japanese demand for beef imports," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(1), pages 1-15.
    33. Engler, Philipp & Tervala, Juha, 2018. "Welfare effects of TTIP in a DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 230-238.
    34. Alexandre Sauquet & Ahmed Barkaoui & Sylvain Caurla & Philippe Delacote & Serge Garcia & Franck Lecocq, 2011. "Estimating Armington elasticities for sawnwood and application to the French Forest Sector Model," Post-Print halshs-00688822, HAL.
    35. Marilyne Huchet‐Bourdon & Esmaeil Pishbahar, 2009. "Armington Elasticities and Tariff Regime: An Application to European Union Rice Imports," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 586-603, September.
    36. Reinert, Kenneth A. & Roland-Holst, David W., 1992. "Armington elasticities for United States manufacturing sectors," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 631-639, October.
    37. Welsch, Heinz, 2008. "Armington elasticities for energy policy modeling: Evidence from four European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2252-2264, September.
    38. Nganou, Jean-Pascal, 2005. "Estimates of Armington parameters for a landlocked economy," MPRA Paper 31459, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Aug 2008.
    39. Hübler, Michael & Pothen, Frank, 2017. "Trade-induced productivity gains reduce incentives to impose strategic tariffs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 420-431.
    40. Elena Lopez & Emilio Pagoulatos, 2002. "Estimates and Determinants of Armington Elasticities for the U.S. Food Industry," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 247-258, September.
    41. Németh, Gabriella & Szabó, László & Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, 2011. "Estimation of Armington elasticities in a CGE economy-energy-environment model for Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1993-1999, July.
    42. Trefler, Daniel, 1995. "The Case of the Missing Trade and Other Mysteries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1029-1046, December.
    43. Olekseyuk, Zoryana & Schürenberg-Frosch, Hannah, 2016. "Are Armington elasticities different across countries and sectors? A European study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 328-342.
    44. Cassoni, Adriana & Flores, Manuel, 2008. "Methodological shortcomings in estimating Armington elasticities," MPRA Paper 34544, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    45. Weslem Rodrigues Faria & Eduardo Amaral Haddad, 2014. "Estimação das Elasticidades de Substituição do comércio regional do Brasil [Estimations of Elasticities of regional trade in Brazil]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 24(1), pages 141-168, January-A.
    46. Anderson, Edward & d'Orey, Maria Ana Jalles & Duvendack, Maren & Esposito, Lucio, 2018. "Does Government Spending Affect Income Poverty? A Meta-regression Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 60-71.
    47. Deirdre Nansen McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 2019. "What quantitative methods should we teach to graduate students? A comment on Swann’s “Is precise econometrics an illusion?”," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 356-361, October.
    48. Osbat, Chiara & Corbo, Vesna, 2013. "Trade adjustment in the European Union - a structural estimation approach," Working Paper Series 1535, European Central Bank.
    49. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    50. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
    51. Zeugner, Stefan & Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "Bayesian Model Averaging Employing Fixed and Flexible Priors: The BMS Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i04).
    52. T. D. Stanley, 2001. "Wheat from Chaff: Meta-analysis as Quantitative Literature Review," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 131-150, Summer.
    53. Bilgic, Abdulbaki & King, Stephen A. & Lusby, Aaron K. & Schreiner, Dean F., 2002. "Estimates of U.S. Regional Commodity Trade Elasticities of Substitution," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 32(2), pages 1-20.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ross, Andrew G. & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J Kim, 2024. "Labour market dynamics in the era of technological advancements: The system-wide impacts of labour augmenting technological change," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Eduardo Gutiérrez & Aitor Lacuesta & César Martín Machuca, 2021. "Brexit: Trade diversion due to trade policy uncertainty," Working Papers 2140, Banco de España.
    3. Grant, Allan & Figus, Gioele & Schubert, Torben, 2022. "Understanding the macroeconomic effects of public research: An application of a regression-microfounded CGE-model to the case of the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft in Germany," Discussion Papers "Innovation Systems and Policy Analysis" 72, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    4. Bajzik, Josef, 2021. "Trading volume and stock returns: A meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Jacopo Timini & Francesca Viani, 2022. "A highway across the Atlantic? Trade and welfare effects of the EU-Mercosur agreement," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 291-308.
    6. Tobias Sytsma, 2020. "The Impact of Hurricanes on Trade and Welfare: Evidence from US Port-level Exports," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 625-655, October.
    7. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    8. Kenneth W. Clements & Marc Jim M. Mariano & George Verikios, 2021. "Foreign-domestic substitution, import penetration and CGE modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(35), pages 4080-4099, July.
    9. Petr Polak & Nikol Polakova & Anna Tlusta, 2020. "How Bad Are Trade Wars? Evidence from Tariffs," Working Papers 2020/15, Czech National Bank.
    10. Simona Malovana & Martin Hodula & Zuzana Gric & Josef Bajzik, 2022. "Borrower-Based Macroprudential Measures and Credit Growth: How Biased is the Existing Literature?," Working Papers 2022/8, Czech National Bank.
    11. Simona Malovana & Martin Hodula & Josef Bajzik & Zuzana Gric, 2021. "A Tale of Different Capital Ratios: How to Correctly Assess the Impact of Capital Regulation on Lending," Working Papers 2021/8, Czech National Bank.
    12. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik, 2020. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Prices - How Strong is the Transmission?," Working Papers 2020/14, Czech National Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bajzik, Josef & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Schwarz, Jiri, 2020. "Estimating the Armington elasticity: The importance of study design and publication bias," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    2. Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2019. "The Elasticity of Substitution between Domestic and Foreign Goods: A Quantitative Survey," Working Papers 2019/12, Czech National Bank.
    3. Delahaye, Elliot & Milot, Catherine, 2020. "Measuring the UK Economy’s Armington Elasticities," Conference papers 333170, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Roman Horvath & Ali Elminejad & Tomas Havranek, 2020. "Publication and Identification Biases in Measuring the Intertemporal Substitution of Labor Supply," Working Papers IES 2020/32, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2020.
    6. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Lubica Laslopova & Olesia Zeynalova, 2020. "Skilled and Unskilled Labor Are Less Substitutable than Commonly Thought," Working Papers IES 2020/29, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Sep 2020.
    7. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    8. Jindrich Matousek & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova, 2022. "Individual discount rates: a meta-analysis of experimental evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 318-358, February.
    9. Ali Elminejad & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath & Zuzana Irsova, 2023. "Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: A Meta-Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 1095-1113, December.
    10. Sebastian Gechert & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Dominika Kolcunova, 2022. "Measuring Capital-Labor Substitution: The Importance of Method Choices and Publication Bias," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 55-82, July.
    11. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Laslopova, Lubica & Zeynalova, Olesia, 2020. "The Elasticity of Substitution between Skilled and Unskilled Labor: A Meta-Analysis," MPRA Paper 102598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova, 2017. "Do Borders Really Slash Trade? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(2), pages 365-396, June.
    13. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2020. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 144 Studies Say 'Probably Not'," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 97-122, January.
    14. Elminejad, Ali & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2022. "Relative Risk Aversion: A Meta-Analysis," MetaArXiv b8uhe, Center for Open Science.
    15. Kroupova, Katerina & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2024. "Student Employment and Education: A Meta-Analysis," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    16. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik, 2020. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Prices - How Strong is the Transmission?," Working Papers 2020/14, Czech National Bank.
    17. Havranek, Tomas & Rusnak, Marek & Sokolova, Anna, 2017. "Habit formation in consumption: A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 142-167.
    18. Kenneth W. Clements & Marc Jim M. Mariano & George Verikios, 2021. "Foreign-domestic substitution, import penetration and CGE modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(35), pages 4080-4099, July.
    19. Tomas Havranek & Dominik Herman & Zuzana Irsova, 2018. "Does Daylight Saving Save Electricity? A Meta-Analysis," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(2), pages 35-61, March.
    20. Anna Sokolova, 2023. "Marginal Propensity to Consume and Unemployment: a Meta-analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 813-846, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Armington; trade elasticity; meta-analysis; publication bias; Bayesian model averaging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:95031. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.