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Foundations, results and perspectives of transition: A case of Serbia

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  • Bukvić, Rajko

Abstract

English Abstract. Paper considers the foundations, results and perspectives of transition process, with special focus on Serbia. The foundations were the postulats of neoclassical economics, the mainstream in recent economic thought. They determined the goal, the methodology, and the ideological basis of this process, and resulted especially in Washington Consensus. The results of the reforms, based on Consensus, showed, with some exceptions, that these countries realized deep and long-term economic fall, followed by similar processes in other spheras. Contrary to ordinary opinions that transition crisis show as result of inconsistency in reforms taking, this is normaly its result. As an analogue is the Morgenthau’s plan for West Germany observed, that has promoted Germany to industrial disarmament, and that would lead to its poverty and its transformation into raw material basis for the developed economies, and to impossibility of survival of the existing number of population. Fortunately for the Germany, Morgenthau’s plan was abandoned and Marshall’s plan was introduced. It lead to industrial renewal of Germany. For the transition countries it is also necessary, considering the practice and basic principles of the Other Canon, which have they origins as far as from the economic policy of Henry VII, to acess re-industrialization in the same way, which is the necessity for renewall of economies, and for overcoming the long-term crisis. Serbian Abstract. Рад разматра основе, резултате и перспективе процеса транзиције, с посебним освртом на Србију. Основе су чинили постулати неокласичне економије, главног тока у данашњој економској мисли. Они су определили циљ, методологију и идеолошку основу овог процеса, и резултовали су Вашингтонским консензусом. Резултати реформи у тзв. посткомунистичким земљама, заснованих на Консензусу, показују, уз мање изузетке, дубок и дуготрајан економски пад, уз негативне процесе и у другим сферама. Насупрот уобичајеним мишљењима да је транзициона криза резултат недоследности у спровођењу реформи, она је управо супротно њихов закономеран резултат. Као аналог истиче се Моргентауов план за З. Немачку, којим је након Другог светског рата било предвиђено да она буде индустријски разоружана, што би водило њеном сиромашењу и претварању у сировински додатак развијеним привредама, и онемогућило опстанак тадашњег броја становника. На срећу по Немачку, Моргентауов план је замењен Маршаловим који јој је обезбедио индустријску обнову. И за транзиционе земље потребно је, у складу с поставкама и праксом Другог канона, који потиче од економске политике Хенрија VII, приступити реиндустријализацији, као нужном услову оживљавања привреда и изласка из дуготрајне кризе.

Suggested Citation

  • Bukvić, Rajko, 2010. "Foundations, results and perspectives of transition: A case of Serbia," MPRA Paper 69873, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:69873
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Blanchard, Olivier, 1996. "Theoretical Aspects of Transition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 117-122, May.
    2. Sergio Godoy & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2007. "Growth, Initial Conditions, Law and Speed of Privatization in Transition Countries: 11 Years Later," Studies in Economic Transition, in: Saul Estrin & Grzegorz W. Kolodko & Milica Uvalic (ed.), Transition and Beyond, chapter 4, pages 89-117, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Marangos, John, 2009. "What happened to the Washington Consensus? The evolution of international development policy," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 197-208, January.
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    5. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "Goodbye Washington Consensus, Hello Washington Confusion? A Review of the World Bank's Economic Growth in the 1990s: Learning from a Decade of Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(4), pages 973-987, December.
    6. John Marangos, 2002. "A Political Economy Approach to the Neoclassical Model of Transition," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 259-276, January.
    7. Kornai Janos, 1994. "Transformational Recession: The Main Causes," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 39-63, August.
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    1. Bukvić, Rajko & Pavlović, Radica, 2014. "Неокласична Економска Теорија И Проблеми Економског Развоја [Neoclassical economic theory and the problems of economic development]," MPRA Paper 70092, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Apr 2014.
    2. Bukvić, Rajko, 2017. "Други Канон И Маршалов План Као Модел Економске Политике [Other Canon and Marshall’s Plan as a Model of Economic Policy]," MPRA Paper 94648, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Bukvić, Rajko & Pavlović, Radica & Zakharov, Vladimir, 2014. "Неоклассическая Экономика И Другой Канон [Neoclassical Economics and Other Canon]," MPRA Paper 120975, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    4. Bukvić, Rajko, 2014. "Смещение Неоклассической Экономической Парадигмы ‒ Предпосылка Повышения Качества Макроэкономического Образования [Removal of the neoclassical economic paradigm – condition for the improving of mac," MPRA Paper 81295, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Standard theory; Other canon; Washington Consensus; Transition crisis; Neoclassical economics; Industrialization; Morgenthau’s Plan; Marshall’s plan; Development Стандардна теорија; Други канон; Вашингтонски консензус; транзициона криза; неокласична економија; индустријализација; Моргентауов план; Маршалов план; развој;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • P27 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • P30 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - General

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