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On the usefulness of government spending in the EU area

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  • Salotti, Simone
  • Marattin, Luigi

Abstract

We investigate the effects of fiscal policy on private consumption and investment in the European Union. A certain consensus has aroused that fiscal impulses have expansionary Keynesian effects on the economic activity. However, the existing empirical literature has concentrated on few countries, mostly outside the EU. We check the validity of this result for the EU area, by using annual data and a panel vector auto-regression approach (PVAR). Our results show that increases in public spending lead to positive and significant effects on private consumption and private investment. According to our baseline estimate, a 1% increase in public spending produces a 0.36% on impact rise in private consumption, and a 0.79% impact rise in private investment. The effects are substantial, and die out slowly (faster in the case of private consumption). A further disaggregation between wage and non-wage components reveals different effects. As for the impact on private consumption, our results show that public salaries have a relatively stronger stimulating role, a result which is probably due to the importance of the public sector especially in continental Europe. On the other hand, the positive impact on private investment is mainly due to the non-wage component of government consumption.

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  • Salotti, Simone & Marattin, Luigi, 2009. "On the usefulness of government spending in the EU area," MPRA Paper 19171, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19171
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    Cited by:

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    2. Membreño, Luis & López, Jennifer & Jiménez, Kenneth, 2020. "Estimación de multiplicadores fiscales para Nicaragua con datos trimestrales de 2006 a 2018 [Estimation of fiscal multipliers for Nicaragua with quarterly data from 2006 to 2018]," MPRA Paper 105132, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Dec 2020.
    3. Dreger, Christian & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2014. "On the relationship between public and private investment in the euro area," Discussion Papers 344, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
    4. L. Marattin & M. Marzo, 2010. "The Multiplier-Effects of Non-Wasteful Government Expenditure," Working Papers 704, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    5. Fisayo Fagbemi & Olufemi Solomon Olatunde, 2019. "Domestic Investment in Africa: Why the Emerging Public Debt Spiral Matters?," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 11(2), pages 91-101, December.
    6. Fisayo Fagbemi & Opeoluwa A. Adeosun, 2020. "Public Debt-Investment Nexus: the Significance of Investment-Generation Policy in West Africa," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 20/083, African Governance and Development Institute..
    7. Iszan Hana Kaharudin & Mohammad Syuhaimi Ab-Rahman, 2022. "Fiscal Policy Effects on Private Expenditure for Sustainable Economic Growth: A Panel VAR Study from Selected Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(17), pages 1-21, August.
    8. Carvelli, Gianni, 2024. "The dynamic effects of public investments on private capital formation: Modelling a heterogeneous asymmetric cointegration with unobserved global factors," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    9. Dreger, Christian & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2016. "Does public investment stimulate private investment? Evidence for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 154-158.
    10. Fisayo Fagbemi & Opeoluwa A. Adeosun, 2020. "Public Debt-Investment Nexus: the Significance of Investment-Generation Policy in West Africa," Working Papers 20/083, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    11. Baussola, Maurizio & Carvelli, Gianni, 2023. "Public and private investments: Long-run asymmetric effects in France and the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    12. Membreño, Luis & López, Jennifer & Jiménez, Kenneth, 2020. "Estimación de multiplicadores fiscales para Nicaragua con datos trimestrales de 2006 a 2018 [Estimation of fiscal multipliers for Nicaragua with quarterly data from 2006 to 2018]," MPRA Paper 105040, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2020.
    13. Barbara Annicchiarico & Claudio Battiati & Claudio Cesaroni & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici, 2017. "IGEM-PA: a Variant of the Italian General Equilibrium Model for Policy Analysis," Working Papers 2, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; private consumption; panel vector autoregression.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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