IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oxf/oxcrwp/174.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Boom goes the price: Giant resource discoveries and real

Author

Listed:
  • Torfinn Harding
  • Radoslaw Stefanski

Abstract

We estimate the effect of giant oil and gas discoveries on bilateral real exchange rates. The size and plausibly exogenous timing of such discoveries make them ideal for identifying the effects of an anticipated resource boom on prices. We find that a giant discovery with the value of a country's GDP increases the real exchange rate by 14% within 10 years following the discovery. The appreciation is nearly exclusively driven by an appreciation of the prices of non-tradable goods. We show that these empirical results are qualitatively and quantitatively in line with a calibrated model with forward looking behaviour and Dutch disease dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Torfinn Harding & Radoslaw Stefanski, 2016. "Boom goes the price: Giant resource discoveries and real," OxCarre Working Papers 174, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Bulte, Erwin H., 2008. "The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 248-264, May.
    2. Betts, Caroline M. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 2006. "U.S. real exchange rate fluctuations and relative price fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1297-1326, October.
    3. Kuralbayeva, Karlygash & Stefanski, Radoslaw, 2013. "Windfalls, structural transformation and specialization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 273-301.
    4. Kareem Ismail, 2010. "The Structural Manifestation of the ‘Dutch Disease’: The Case of Oil Exporting Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/103, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Asea, Patrick K & Corden, W Max, 1994. "The Balassa-Samuelson Model: An Overview," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 191-200, October.
    6. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2011. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource‐Rich Developing Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 1-30, March.
    7. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Venables, Anthony J., 2013. "Absorbing a windfall of foreign exchange: Dutch disease dynamics," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 229-243.
    8. Patrick K. Asea, 1994. "The Balassa-Samuelson Model: An Overview," UCLA Economics Working Papers 710, UCLA Department of Economics.
    9. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    10. Solomon M. Hsiang & Amir S. Jina, 2014. "The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones," NBER Working Papers 20352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2008. "Real exchange rate movements and the relative price of non-traded goods," Staff Report 415, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    12. Hunt Allcott & Daniel Keniston, 2014. "Dutch Disease or Agglomeration? The Local Economic Effects of Natural Resource Booms in Modern America," NBER Working Papers 20508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Edouard Mien & Michaël Goujon, 2022. "40 Years of Dutch Disease Literature: Lessons for Developing Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(3), pages 351-383, September.
    2. Rick Van der Ploeg & Fidel Perez-Sebastian & Ohad Raveh, 2019. "Oil Discoveries and Protectionism," Economics Series Working Papers 895, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Chiroleu-Assouline, Mireille & Fodha, Mouez & Kirat, Yassine, 2020. "Carbon curse in developed countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2019. "Macro policy responses to natural resource windfalls and the crash in commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 263-282.
    5. William Gruben, 2016. ", by Victor Menaldo," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 486-488, October.
    6. Rick Van der Ploeg, 2016. "Macro Policy Responses To Natural Resource Windfalls," OxCarre Working Papers 178, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    7. Girard, Victoire & Kudebayeva, Alma & Toews, Gerhard, 2020. "Inflated Expectations and Commodity Prices: Evidence from Kazakhstan," GLO Discussion Paper Series 469, Global Labor Organization (GLO), revised 2020.
    8. Brunnschweiler, Christa N. & Poelhekke, Steven, 2021. "Pushing one’s luck: Petroleum ownership and discoveries," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    9. Roberto Iacono, 2018. "The Dutch disease revisited: absorption constraint and learning by doing," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 17(1), pages 61-85, March.
    10. Perez-Sebastian, Fidel & Raveh, Ohad & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2021. "Oil discoveries and protectionism: Role of news effects," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    11. James Cust & Torfinn Harding & Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2019. "Dutch Disease Resistance: Evidence from Indonesian Firms," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(6), pages 1205-1237.
    12. Cust,James Frederick & Mihalyi,David, 2017. "Evidence for a presource curse ? oil discoveries, elevated expectations, and growth disappointments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8140, The World Bank.
    13. Regina Stéphanie Seri, 2021. "How giant discoveries of natural resources impact sovereign debt ratings in developing and emerging countries ?," Working Papers hal-03144330, HAL.
    14. Güntner, Jochen H.F., 2019. "How do oil producers respond to giant oil field discoveries?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 59-74.
    15. Regina Stéphanie Seri, 2021. "How giant discoveries of natural resources impact sovereign debt ratings in developing and emerging countries ?," CERDI Working papers hal-03144330, HAL.
    16. Cust,James Frederick & Mensah,Justice Tei, 2020. "Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9372, The World Bank.
    17. Abdelwahed, Loujaina, 2020. "More oil, more or less taxes? New evidence on the impact of resource revenue on domestic tax revenue," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Katovich, Erik S., 2024. "Winning and losing the resource lottery: Governance after uncertain oil discoveries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    19. Mihalyi, David, 2020. "The Long Road to First Oil," MPRA Paper 103725, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Konstantin P. Yurchenko & Irina N. Savelyeva, 2020. "Restoring Russia’s resource-dependent economy: From the Dutch Disease towards economic growth," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 28-47, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Torfinn Harding & Radoslaw Stefans & Gerhard Toews, 2020. "Boom Goes the Price: Giant Resource Discoveries and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(630), pages 1715-1728.
    2. James Cust & Torfinn Harding & Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2019. "Dutch Disease Resistance: Evidence from Indonesian Firms," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(6), pages 1205-1237.
    3. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Clark, Jeremy, 2017. "The evolution of the natural resource curse thesis: A critical literature survey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-134.
    4. Anthony J. Venables, 2016. "Using Natural Resources for Development: Why Has It Proven So Difficult?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 161-184, Winter.
    5. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    6. Chen, Lein-Lein & Choi, Seungmook & Devereux, John, 2015. "Accounting for real exchange rate changes at long time horizons," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 264-277.
    7. Nemera Gebeyehu Mamo, 2018. "Essays on natural resources in Africa: local economic development, multi-ethnic coalitions and armed conflict," Economics PhD Theses 0518, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    8. Frederick Ploeg, 2011. "Fiscal policy and Dutch disease," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 121-138, June.
    9. Anthony J. Venables & Samuel E. Wills, 2016. "Resource Funds: Stabilising, Parking, and Inter-generational Transfer," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 25(suppl_2), pages 20-40.
    10. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2019. "Macro policy responses to natural resource windfalls and the crash in commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 263-282.
    11. Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu & Bari, Mohammad Tariful, 2021. "Resource boom and non-resource firms: Mongolia 2007 and 2011," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Perez-Sebastian, Fidel & Raveh, Ohad & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2021. "Oil discoveries and protectionism: Role of news effects," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    13. Pierre-Louis Vezina, 2017. "Resource discoveries and FDI bonanzas: An illustration from Mozambique," OxCarre Working Papers 199, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    14. Roy J. Ruffin, 2014. "Nontraded Goods and Real Exchange Rates in a Multi-Good Ricardian Model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 105-115, February.
    15. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2017. "Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Macroeconomic Interdependence, chapter 8, pages 211-248, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Jönsson, Kristian, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate and Consumption Fluctuations following Trade Liberalization," Working Paper Series 187, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    17. Tiago Cavalcanti & Daniel Mata & Frederik Toscani, 2019. "Winning the oil lottery: the impact of natural resource extraction on growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 79-115, March.
    18. Jönsson, Kristian, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate and Consumption Fluctuations following Trade Liberalization," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 568, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 04 Jan 2005.
    19. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2012. "Natural Resource Wealth: The Challenge of Managing a Windfall," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 315-337, July.
    20. Erik Gilje & Robert Ready & Nikolai Roussanov, 2016. "Fracking, Drilling, and Asset Pricing: Estimating the Economic Benefits of the Shale Revolution," NBER Working Papers 22914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Melis Boya (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/oxcaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.