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All together now: Do international factors explain relative price co-movements?

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Recent research has found evidence of increasing co-movement in CPI inflation rates across industrialised countries. This paper considers whether this increased international co-movement in inflation rates can be attributed to greater global integration of product markets. To examine this question, we use a data set of 28 matched product category price indices for 14 advanced economies for 1998Q1 - 2008Q2, and decompose the inflation rates into a world factor, country-specific factors, and category-specific factors using a Bayesian dynamic factor model with Gibbs sampling. We find that the category-specific factors account for a large part of the co-movement in the prices of goods which are intensive in internationally traded primary commodities; but this is less evident for other traded goods. We also find that both the world factor and the category-specific factors become more significant in explaining the movement in the relative prices in the second half of our sample.

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  • Özer Karagedikli & Haroon Mumtaz & Misa Tanaka, 2010. "All together now: Do international factors explain relative price co-movements?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2010/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2010/02
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    1. Ha, Jongrim & Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2023. "One-stop source: A global database of inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    2. Kose, M. Ayhan & Ha, Jongrim & Ohnsorge, Franziska, 2019. "Global Inflation Synchronization," CEPR Discussion Papers 13600, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. John McDermott, 2010. "Discussion of What Drives Inflation in the World?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    4. Michael Callaghan & Enzo Cassino & Tugrul Vehbi & Benjamin Wong, 2019. "Opening the toolbox: how does the Reserve Bank analyse the world?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 82, pages 1-14, April.
    5. De Soyres,Francois Michel Marie Raphael & Franco Bedoya,Sebastian, 2019. "Inflation Dynamics and Global Value Chains," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9090, The World Bank.
    6. Parker, Miles, 2018. "How global is “global inflation”?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 174-197.
    7. Arango-Castillo, Lenin & Orraca, María José & Molina, G. Stefano, 2023. "The global component of headline and core inflation in emerging market economies and its ability to improve forecasting performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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