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Short-Term Capital Flows

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  • Dani Rodrik
  • Andres Velasco

Abstract

We provide a conceptual and empirical framework for evaluating the effects of short-term capital flows. A simple model of the joint determination of the maturity and cost of external borrowing highlights the role played by self-fulfilling crises. The model also specifies the circumstances under which short-term debt accumulation is socially excessive. The empirical analysis shows that the short-term debt to reserves ratio is a robust predictor of financial crises, and that greater short-term exposure is associated with more severe crises when capital flows reverse. Higher levels of M2/GDP and per-capita income are associated with shorter-term maturities of external debt. The level of international trade does not seem to have any relationship with levels of short-term indebtedness, which suggests that trade credit plays an insignificant role in driving short-term capital flows. Our policy analysis focuses on ways in which potential illiquidity can be avoided.

Suggested Citation

  • Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7364
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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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