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Generational Accounting and Immigration in the United States

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  • Alan J. Auerbach
  • Philip Oreopoulos

Abstract

In recent years, the renewed strength of immigration to the United States has sparked a debate about the economic effects of immigration. A central issue in this debate has been the fiscal impact of immigrants. Most research in this area has adopted a static, cross-section approach in assessing the net impact of immigrants on the economy's fiscal position. However, a dynamic approach is important because of the age dependency of many government tax and expenditure programs, and necessary to take the descendents of immigrants into account. This paper reconsiders the fiscal impact of immigrants over time, using the technique of generational accounting. We may summarize our results with three findings: 1. Because new immigrants represent a larger fraction of future generations than of present ones, shifting the burden onto future generations also shifts it, relatively, onto new immigrants. Thus, if the entire fiscal imbalance currently estimated for the United States is placed on future generations, then the presence of new immigrants reduces the burden borne by natives. 2. When a policy of fiscal responsibility' is followed, whether there is a fiscal gain from immigration depends on the extent to which government purchases rise with the immigrant population. 3. The impact of immigration on fiscal balance is extremely small relative to the size of the overall imbalance itself. Thus, immigration should be viewed neither as a major source of the existing imbalance, nor as a potential solution to it.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan J. Auerbach & Philip Oreopoulos, 1999. "Generational Accounting and Immigration in the United States," NBER Working Papers 7041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7041
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "The Methodology of Generational Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 31-42, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Philip Oreopoulos & Alan J. Auerbach, 1999. "Analyzing the Fiscal Impact of U.S. Immigration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 176-180, May.
    4. Hans Fehr & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounting in General Equilibrium," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 43-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Auerbach, Alan J. & Kotlikoff, Laurence J. & Leibfritz, Willi (ed.), 1999. "Generational Accounting around the World," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226032139, September.
    6. Bernd Raffelhuschen & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the Globe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 161-166, May.
    7. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Benjamin R. Page & John Sturrock, 1999. "Generational Accounts for the United States: An Update," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 489-518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number auer99-1.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karin Mayr, 2005. "The Fiscal Impact of Immigrants in Austria – A Generational Accounting Analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 181-216, June.
    2. Damla Hacýibrahimoðlu & Pýnar Derin-Güre, 2015. "Generational Accounting in Turkey," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 1-26.
    3. Manabu Shimasawa & Kazumasa Oguro & Minoru Masujima, 2014. "Population Aging, Policy Reforms, and Lifetime Net Tax Rate in Japan: A Generational Accounting Approach," Discussion papers ron258, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    4. Karin Mayr, 2004. "The fiscal impact of immigrants in Austria--a generational accounting analysis," Economics working papers 2004-09, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    5. Arnaud Dellis, 2002. "Comptabilité générationnelle en Europe," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 154(3), pages 25-30.
    6. Istvan Konya, 2001. "Optimal Immigration, Assimilation and Trade," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 507, Boston College Department of Economics.
    7. Simone Maxand & Hend Sallam, 2024. "Local Fiscal Effects of Immigration in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 11162, CESifo.
    8. István Kónya, 2007. "Optimal Immigration and Cultural Assimilation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25(2), pages 367-391.
    9. Philip Oreopoulos & Alan J. Auerbach, 1999. "Analyzing the Fiscal Impact of U.S. Immigration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 176-180, May.
    10. Laurence Kotlikoff, 2005. "Pension and medicost reform - averting the demoghaphic/fiscal demise," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(4), pages 37-41, December.
    11. Laurence Kotlikoff, 2005. "Pension and medicost reform - averting the demoghaphic/fiscal demise," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 6(04), pages 37-41, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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