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Co-Integration, Aggregate Consumption, and the Demand For Imports: A Structural Econometric Investigation

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  • Richard H. Clarida

Abstract

This paper uses a two-good version of Hall's (1978) representative agent, permanent income model to derive a structural import demand equation for nondurable consumer goods. Under the identification restriction that taste shocks are stationary, the model is shown to imply that log imports, log domestic goods, and the log relative price of imports are co-integrated. The data decisively reject the null hypothesis that imports, the relative price of imports, and the consumption of home goods are not co-integrated. We employ the non-linear least squares technique recently proposed by Phillips and Loretan (1990> to estimate the parameters of the import demand equation. The long-run price elasticity of import demand is estimated to be -0.95. The elasticity of import demand with respect to a permanent increase in real spending is estimated to be 2.20. These estimates fall within the range reported in studies by Helkie and Hooper (1986), Cline (1989), and the many studies surveyed by Goldstein and Kahn (1985) The message of this paper is that, at least for non-durable consumer goods, it is possible to interpret the traditional import demand equation as a co-integrating regression, and to interpret the price and expenditure elasticities estimated from such a trade equation as a co-integrating vector. Estimates of the co-integrating vector can be used to recover estimates of the utility parameters of the representative household. The similarity between the OLS and Phillips-Loretan estimates of the parameters suggests that the simultaneous equation bias is not large.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard H. Clarida, 1991. "Co-Integration, Aggregate Consumption, and the Demand For Imports: A Structural Econometric Investigation," NBER Working Papers 3812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:3812
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    1. Richard H. Clarida, 1991. "Aggregate Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 851-867.
    2. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    3. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    4. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
    5. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Clinton Shiells & Robert Stern & Alan Deardorff, 1989. "Estimates of the elasticities of substitution between imports and home goods for the United States: Reply," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 125(2), pages 371-374, June.
    7. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
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