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Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty

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  • Scott R. Baker
  • Aniket Baksy
  • Nicholas Bloom
  • Steven J. Davis
  • Jonathan A. Rodden

Abstract

We examine patterns of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) around national elections in 23 countries. Uncertainty shows a clear tendency to rise in the months leading up to elections. Average EPU values are 13% higher in the month of and the month prior to an election than in other months of the same national election cycle, conditional on country effects, time effects, and country-specific time trends. In a closer examination of U.S. data, EPU rises by 28% in the month of presidential elections that are close and polarized, as compared to elections that are neither. This pattern suggests that the 2020 US Presidential Election could see a large rise in economic policy uncertainty. It also suggests larger spikes in uncertainty around future elections in other countries that have experienced rising polarization in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott R. Baker & Aniket Baksy & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Jonathan A. Rodden, 2020. "Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 27961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27961
    Note: AP EFG ME POL PR
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    1. Will Jennings & Christopher Wlezien, 2018. "Election polling errors across time and space," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 276-283, April.
    2. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    3. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Brandice Canes-Wrone & Steven J. Davis & Jonathan Rodden, 2014. "Why Has US Policy Uncertainty Risen since 1960?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 56-60, May.
    4. Canes-Wrone, Brandice & Park, Jee-Kwang, 2012. "Electoral Business Cycles in OECD Countries," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 106(1), pages 103-122, February.
    5. Levi Boxell & Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2024. "Cross-Country Trends in Affective Polarization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 557-565, March.
    6. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost, 2019. "Policy News and Stock Market Volatility," NBER Working Papers 25720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. William D. Nordhaus, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 42(2), pages 169-190.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Jaerim Choi & Sunghun Lim, 2023. "Tariffs, agricultural subsidies, and the 2020 US presidential election," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(4), pages 1149-1175, August.
    3. Jo, Eun Hye & Lee, Jung Wha, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and managerial short-termism," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Florian LEON & Laurent WEILL, 2021. "Elections Hinder Firms’ Access to Credit," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2021-03, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    5. Fetzer, Thiemo & Yotzov, Ivan, 2023. "(How) Do electoral surprises drive business cycles? Evidence from a new dataset," CEPR Discussion Papers 18306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Jordan Bisset & Dirk Czarnitzki & Thorsten Doherr, 2022. "Policy Uncertainty and Inventor Mobility," Working Papers of ECOOM - Centre for Research and Development Monitoring 700195, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), ECOOM - Centre for Research and Development Monitoring.
    7. Cazals, Antoine & Léon, Florian, 2023. "Perception of political instability in election periods: Evidence from African firms," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 259-276.
    8. García-Uribe, Sandra & Mueller, Hannes & Sanz, Carlos, 2024. "Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the dos Españas," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(1), pages 40-73, March.
    9. Agoraki, Maria-Eleni K. & Wu, Haoran & Xu, Tongbin & Yang, Min, 2024. "Money never sleeps: Capital flows under global risk and uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Joëlle Noailly ; Laura Nowzohour; Matthias van den Heuvel, 2022. "Does Environmental Policy Uncertainty Hinder Investments Towards a Low-Carbon Economy?," CIES Research Paper series 74-2022, Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute.
    11. Nattarinee Denlertchaikul & Pattanaporn Chatjuthamard & Pornsit Jiraporn & Piyachart Phiromswad, 2022. "The Interaction Effect of Text-Based Corporate Innovation and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Firm Performance," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(4), pages 21582440221, November.
    12. Peng, Daoju & Colak, Gonul & Shen, Jianfu, 2023. "Lean against the wind: The effect of policy uncertainty on a firm's corporate social responsibility strategy," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Sarah Spycher, 2024. "Elections and Political Polarisation: Challenges for Environmental Agreements," Working Papers wp1196, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    14. Shabir, Mohsin & Jiang, Ping & Bakhsh, Satar & Zhao, Zhongxiu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and bank stability: Threshold effect of institutional quality and competition," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    15. Mueller, Hannes & Garcia-Uribe, Sandra & Sanz, Carlos, 2020. "Economic Uncertainty and Divisive Politics: Evidence from the "dos Españas"," CEPR Discussion Papers 15479, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Gonzalez, Felipe & Coy, Felipe & Prem, Mounu & von Dessauer, Cristine, 2022. "Uncertainty from dictatorship to democracy: Evidence from business communications," SocArXiv gz934, Center for Open Science.
    17. Pop, Ionuț Daniel, 2022. "COVID-19 crisis, voters’ drivers, and financial markets consequences on US presidential election and global economy," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    18. Florian Léon & Laurent Weill, 2024. "Elections hinder firms' access to credit," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(1), pages 73-107, January.
    19. Baker, Scott R. & Davis, Steven J. & Levy, Jeffrey A., 2022. "State-level economic policy uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 81-99.
    20. repec:zbw:bofitp:2022_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Cristiane Gea & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Luciano Vereda & Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto, 2023. "Pricing uncertainty in the Brazilian stock market: do size and sustainability matter?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-37, January.

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