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Do Household Finances Constrain Unconventional Fiscal Policy?

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  • Scott R. Baker
  • Lorenz Kueng
  • Leslie McGranahan
  • Brian T. Melzer

Abstract

When the zero lower bound on nominal interest rate binds, monetary policy makers may lack traditional tools to stimulate aggregate demand. We investigate whether "unconventional" fiscal policy, in the form of pre-announced consumption tax changes, has the potential to meaningfully shift durables purchases intertemporally and how it is affected by consumer credit. In particular, we test whether car sales react in anticipation of future sales tax changes, leveraging 57 pre-announced changes in state sales tax rates from 1999-2017. We find evidence for substantial tax elasticities, with car sales rising by over 8% in the month before a 1% increase in the sales tax rate. Responses are heterogeneous across households and sensitive to supply of credit. Consumers with high credit risk scores are most able to pull purchases forward. At the same time, other effects such as customer composition and attention lead to an even larger tax elasticity during recessions, despite these credit frictions. We discuss policy implications and the likely magnitudes of tax changes necessary for any substantive long-term responses.

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  • Scott R. Baker & Lorenz Kueng & Leslie McGranahan & Brian T. Melzer, 2018. "Do Household Finances Constrain Unconventional Fiscal Policy?," NBER Working Papers 25212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25212
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    1. Victoria Baudisch & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2023. "Costly, but (Relatively) Ineffective? An Assessment of Germany’s Temporary VAT Rate Reduction During the Covid-19 Pandemic," Research Papers in Economics 2023-04, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    2. Shoji, Toshiaki, 2022. "Menu costs and information rigidity: Evidence from the consumption tax hike in Japan," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Baker, Scott R. & Johnson, Stephanie & Kueng, Lorenz, 2024. "Financial returns to household inventory management," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Koeniger, Winfried & Kress, Peter, 2024. "The Effect of Unconventional Fiscal Policy on Consumption – New Evidence Based on Transactional Data," IZA Discussion Papers 17412, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
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    6. Francesca Parodi, 2024. "Consumption Tax Cuts In A Recession," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(1), pages 117-148, February.
    7. Scott R. Baker & Stephanie Johnson & Lorenz Kueng, 2021. "Shopping for Lower Sales Tax Rates," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 209-250, July.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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