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Not so Disconnected: Exchange Rates and the Capital Stock

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  • Tarek Alexander Hassan
  • Thomas Mertens
  • Tony Zhang

Abstract

We investigate the link between stochastic properties of exchange rates and differences in capital-output ratios across industrialized countries. To this end, we endogenize capital accumulation within a standard model of exchange rate determination with nontraded goods. The model predicts that currencies of countries that are more systemic for the world economy (countries that face particularly volatile shocks or account for a large share of world GDP) appreciate when the price of traded goods in word markets is high. These currencies are better hedges against consumption risk faced by international investors because they appreciate in "bad" states of the world. As a consequence, more systemic countries face a lower cost of capital and accumulate more capital per worker. We estimate our model using data from seven industrialized countries with freely floating exchange rate regimes between 1984-2010 and show that cross-country variation in the stochastic properties of exchange rates accounts for 72% of the cross-country variation in capital-output ratios. In this sense, the stochastic properties of exchange rates map to fundamentals in the way predicted by the model.

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  • Tarek Alexander Hassan & Thomas Mertens & Tony Zhang, 2015. "Not so Disconnected: Exchange Rates and the Capital Stock," NBER Working Papers 21445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21445
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang Liu & Mariano Croce & Ivan Shaliastovich & Ric Colacito, 2016. "Volatility Risk Pass-Through," 2016 Meeting Papers 135, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Weithing Zhang & Thomas Mertens & Tarek Hassan, 2014. "Currency Manipulation," 2014 Meeting Papers 401, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Tarek A Hassan & Thomas M Mertens & Tony Zhang, 2023. "A Risk-based Theory of Exchange Rate Stabilization," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(2), pages 879-911.
    4. Tarek A. Hassan & Tony Zhang, 2021. "The Economics of Currency Risk," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 281-307, August.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    6. Sticca, Ralph Melles & Nakao, Silvio Hiroshi, 2019. "Hedge accounting choice as exchange loss avoidance under financial crisis: Evidence from Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    7. Tony Zhang, 2022. "Monetary Policy Spillovers through Invoicing Currencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 129-161, February.
    8. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2023. "An investment-based explanation of currency excess returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Nedra Baklouti & Younes Boujelbene, 2020. "A simultaneous equation model of economic growth and shadow economy: Is there a difference between the developed and developing countries?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 151-170, February.
    11. Aleksandra Babii, 2019. "Exchange Rates Co-movement and International Trade," 2019 Meeting Papers 1150, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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