IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0407.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamic Adjustment and the Demand for International Reserves

Author

Listed:
  • John F. O. Bilson
  • Jacob A. Frenkel

Abstract

Although there have been a large number of empirical studies of the demand for international reserves, there have not been many successful demonstrations that deviations of the actual stock of reserves from the target level defined by the demand function trigger a process of adjustment. This paper presents new evidence which suggests that central banks do have a target level of international reserve holdings, and that the adjustment of actual reserves towards the target level is quite rapid. In addition, an economic theory of the speed of adjustment is presented and tested. The evidence suggests that central banks adjust more rapidly to reserve deficiencies than to surpluses, that the speed of adjustment is positively related to the divergence between the actual level of reserves and the target level, and that countries which hold abnormally large quantities of reserves do so, in part, in order to adjust more slowly. Finally, the paper examines the applicability of the model to the current regime of managed flexible exchange rates. The evidence suggests that the move towards greater exchange rate flexibility has not significantly altered the reserve holding behavior of the world's central banks.

Suggested Citation

  • John F. O. Bilson & Jacob A. Frenkel, 1979. "Dynamic Adjustment and the Demand for International Reserves," NBER Working Papers 0407, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0407
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nber.org/papers/w0407.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Grubel, Herbert G, 1971. "The Demand for International Reserves: A Critical Review of the Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1148-1166, December.
    2. Clark, Peter B, 1970. "Optimum International Reserves and the Speed of Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 356-376, March-Apr.
    3. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1978. "Public policies in open economies," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-4, January.
    4. Michael Michaely, 1971. "The Responsiveness of Demand Policies to Balance of Payments: Postwar Patterns," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mich71-1.
    5. Kelly, Michael G, 1970. "The Demand for International Reserves," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 655-667, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Edwards, 1981. "The Demand for International Reserves and Exchange Rate Adjustments: The Case of LDC's, 1964-1972," UCLA Economics Working Papers 229, UCLA Department of Economics.
    2. Prabheesh, K P & Malathy, D & Madhumathi, R, 2007. "Demand for Foreign Exchange Reserves in India: A Co-integration Approach," MPRA Paper 13969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "The Demand for International Reserves and Monetary Equilibrium: Some Evidence from Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 495-500, August.
    4. Lehto, Taru, 1994. "The level of a central bank's international reserves: theory and cross-country analysis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/1994, Bank of Finland.
    5. Jeffrey Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "Estimation of De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes: Synthesis of the Techniques for Inferring Flexibility and Basket Weights," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(3), pages 384-416, July.
    6. Michael R. Darby & James R. Lothian, 1983. "Conclusions on the International Transmission of Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: The International Transmission of Inflation, pages 491-524, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. repec:bla:econom:v:57:y:1990:i:225:p:73-89 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Antonio Francisco A. Silva Jr, 2011. "The Self-insurance Role of International Reserves and the 2008-2010 Crisis," Working Papers Series 256, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    9. Antonio Francisco Silva Jr. & Érica Domingos da Silva, 2004. "Optimal International Reserves Holdings In Emerging Markets Economies: The Brazilian Case," Anais do XXXII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 32nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 078, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    10. Edwards, Sebastian, 1985. "On the interest-rate elasticity of the demand for international reserves: Some evidence from developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 287-295, June.
    11. Jacob A. Frenkel, 1983. "International Liquidity and Monetary Control," NBER Working Papers 1118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Michael R. Darby & James R. Lothian, 1981. "Exchange Rate Systems and Trends in Inflation," UCLA Economics Working Papers 226, UCLA Department of Economics.
    13. Glick, Reuven & Kretzmer, Peter & Wihlborg, Clas, 1995. "Real exchange rate effects of monetary disturbances under different degrees of exchange rate flexibility: An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 249-273, May.
    14. Mr. Hazel Selvon & Ms. Tracy Polius & Mr. Oral Williams, 2001. "Reserve Pooling in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union and the CFA Franc Zone: A Comparative Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2001/104, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Sebastian Edwards, 1981. "A Note on the Demand for International REserves by Less Developed Countries," UCLA Economics Working Papers 222, UCLA Department of Economics.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Farhang Niroomand, 1988. "On the exchange-rate elasticity of the demand for international reserves: Some evidence from industrial countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 124(1), pages 161-168, March.
    17. Sebastián Edwards, 1982. "Ajuste Cambiario y Reservas Internacionales: Un Análisis Empírico," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 19(57), pages 193-202.
    18. Giulio Cifarelli & Giovanna Paladino, 2009. "The Buffer Stock Model Redux? An Analysis of the Dynamics of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 525-543, September.
    19. Hee-Ryang Ra, 2008. "Dilution of Opportunity Cost Effect on the Demand for International Reserves in the High Reserve Era," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 24, pages 151-171.
    20. M. Bahmani-Oskooee & F. Brown, 2002. "Demand for international reserves: a review article," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(10), pages 1209-1226.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "The Demand for International Reserves and Monetary Equilibrium: Some Evidence from Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 495-500, August.
    2. Prabheesh, K P & Malathy, D & Madhumathi, R, 2007. "Demand for Foreign Exchange Reserves in India: A Co-integration Approach," MPRA Paper 13969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mayer, Thomas, 1980. "Zum Zusammenhang zwischen Exporterlösschwankungen und Investitionsgüterimporten in ausgewählten Entwicklungsländern," Kiel Working Papers 109, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Bordo, Michael D. & Macdonald, Ronald & Oliver, Michael J., 2009. "Sterling in crisis, 1964–1967," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 437-459, December.
    5. Fernando Arce & Julien Bengui & Javier Bianchi, 2019. "A Macroprudential Theory of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," NBER Working Papers 26236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ellen E. Meade, 1987. "The effect of multilateral trade clearinghouses on the demand for international reserves," International Finance Discussion Papers 310, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Jacob A. Frenkel, 1983. "International Liquidity and Monetary Control," NBER Working Papers 1118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Sebastian Edwards, 1981. "A Note on the Demand for International REserves by Less Developed Countries," UCLA Economics Working Papers 222, UCLA Department of Economics.
    9. David Fernando López Angarita, 2006. "Nivel de reservas internacionales y riesgo cambiario en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 8(15), pages 117-159, July-Dece.
    10. Philip Lane & Dominic Burke, 2001. "The Empirics of Foreign Reserves," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 423-434, October.
    11. Sebastian Edwards, 1981. "The Demand for International Reserves and Exchange Rate Adjustments: The Case of LDC's, 1964-1972," UCLA Economics Working Papers 229, UCLA Department of Economics.
    12. Lehto, Taru, 1994. "The level of a central bank's international reserves : theory and cross-country analysis," Research Discussion Papers 15/1994, Bank of Finland.
    13. Karim Khan & Eatzaz Ahmed, 2005. "The Demand for International Reserves: A Case Study of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 939-957.
    14. Jung, Chulho, 1995. "Optimal management of international reserves," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 601-621.
    15. Sula, Ozan, 2008. "Demand for International Reserves: A Quantile Regression Approach," MPRA Paper 11680, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Jacob A. Frenkel, 1978. "International Reserves Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes and Aspects of The Economics of Managed Float," NBER Working Papers 0287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Sula, Ozan, 2011. "Demand for international reserves in developing nations: A quantile regression approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 764-777, September.
    18. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1994_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Hee-Ryang Ra, 2008. "Dilution of Opportunity Cost Effect on the Demand for International Reserves in the High Reserve Era," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 24, pages 151-171.
    20. David Fernando LOPEZ ANGARITA, 2006. "Nivel óptimo de Reservas Internacionales y crisis cambiaria en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 3273, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    21. Alexander Mihailov & Harun Nasir, 2022. "Sudden Stops, Productivity and the Optimal Level of International Reserves for Small Open Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(5), pages 825-851, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0407. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.