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Spatial Heterogeneity in Mortgage Terminations by Refinance, Sale and Default

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  • Yongheng Deng
  • Andrey D. Pavlov
  • Lihong Yang

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of spatially correlated unobservable variables on the refinancing, selling, and default decisions of mortgage borrowers. Virtually the entire mortgage literature acknowledges that borrower specific characteristics, such as culture, education, or access to information, play an important role in the mortgage termination decisions. While we do not observe these variables directly, we note that borrowers of similar background tend to cluster together in neighborhoods. We propose a method to take advantage of this information and reconcile the theoretical option-based models of mortgage terminations with the empirical experience of mortgage refinancing, sale and default. Specifically, we combine the three-stage maximum likelihood estimation (3SMLE) approach for competing risks hazard model with random effect proposed by Deng and Quigley (2002) with the space-varying coefficient method (SVC) of Pavlov (2000) to modify the covariance structure according to the spatial distribution of the observations. Beyond a significant improvement of the model performance, this yields a number of insightful implications for mortgage termination behavior. For instance, borrowers of the affluent "West Side" of Los Angeles County both refinance and move at a higher rate than predicted by the standard maximum likelihood estimation method. At the same time, borrowers from some lower-valued neighborhoods tend to stay longer than expected with their mortgages and properties. Such findings have direct implications for mortgage pricing and have the potential to ultimately improve the equity and efficiency of the lending markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongheng Deng & Andrey D. Pavlov & Lihong Yang, 2004. "Spatial Heterogeneity in Mortgage Terminations by Refinance, Sale and Default," Working Paper 8602, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate.
    • Handle: RePEc:luk:wpaper:8602
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pavlov, Andrey D, 2001. "Competing Risks of Mortgage Termination: Who Refinances, Who Moves, and Who Defaults?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 185-211, September.
    2. Andrey D. Pavlov, 2000. "Space-Varying Regression Coefficients: A Semi-parametric Approach Applied to Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 28(2), pages 249-283.
    3. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    4. Quigley, John M, 1987. "Interest Rate Variations, Mortgage Prepayments and Household Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(4), pages 636-643, November.
    5. Capone, Charles A, Jr, 2001. "Introduction to the Special Issue on Mortgage Modeling," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 131-137, September.
    6. Deng, Yongheng & Quigley, John M. & Van Order, Robert & Mac, Freddie, 1996. "Mortgage default and low downpayment loans: The costs of public subsidy," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 263-285, June.
    7. Stanton, Richard Henry, 1996. "Unobservable Heterogeneity and Rational Learning: Pool-Specific versus Generic Mortgage-Backed Security Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 243-263, May.
    8. John M. Clapp & Gerson M. Goldberg & John P. Harding & Michael LaCour‐Little, 2001. "Movers and Shuckers: Interdependent Prepayment Decisions," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 411-450, March.
    9. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C. & Muller III, Walter J. & Epperson, James F., 1995. "The Valuation at Origination of Fixed-Rate Mortgages with Default and Prepayment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-36, July.
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