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Is Europe disintegrating? Macroeconomic divergence, structural polarization, trade and fragility

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  • Claudius Gräbner
  • Philipp Heimberger
  • Jakob Kapeller
  • Bernhard Schütz

Abstract

This paper analyses economic developments in the Eurozone since its inception in 1999. In doing so, we document a process of economic divergence and polarization among those countries that joined the Eurozone during its first two years, which fits a typical ‘core – periphery’ pattern. We show how this polarization process first manifested in increasing current account imbalances before the crisis, before it translated unto the level of general macroeconomic development after the crisis. Empirically, we demonstrate how this divergence is tied to a ‘structural polarization’ in terms of the sectoral composition of Eurozone countries: specifically, the emergence of export-driven growth in core countries and debt-driven growth in the European periphery coincides with differences in technological capabilities and firm performance. Pushing for convergence within Europe requires the implementation of three intertwined policy programs: macroprudential financial regulation, active industrial policies aiming at a technological catch-up process in periphery countries, and progressive redistributional policies to sustain adequate levels of aggregate demand throughout the Eurozone.

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  • Claudius Gräbner & Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2017. "Is Europe disintegrating? Macroeconomic divergence, structural polarization, trade and fragility," Economics working papers 2017-15, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    • Handle: RePEc:jku:econwp:2017_15
    Note: English
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    Cited by:

    1. Claudius Gräbner & Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller, 2020. "Pandemic pushes polarisation: the Corona crisis and macroeconomic divergence in the Eurozone," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(3), pages 425-438, September.
    2. Alberto Botta & Ben Tippet, 2020. "Secular stagnation and core-periphery uneven development in post-crisis eurozone," Working Papers PKWP2002, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    3. Karsten Kohler & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2022. "Growing differently? Financial cycles, austerity, and competitiveness in growth models since the Global Financial Crisis," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 1314-1341, July.
    4. Julia Eder & Klemens Kaps, 2020. "Kann Protektionismus fortschrittlich sein?," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 46(2), pages 175-208.
    5. Claudius Gräbner & Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2018. "Structural Change in Times of Increasing Openness," wiiw Working Papers 143, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    6. Claudius Gräbner & Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller & Bernhard Schütz, 2020. "Structural change in times of increasing openness: assessing path dependency in European economic integration," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1467-1495, November.
    7. Botta, Alberto & Tippet, Ben, 2020. "The roots of a divided eurozone: rigid labour markets or asymmetric technology-macroeconomic regimes?," Greenwich Papers in Political Economy 30958, University of Greenwich, Greenwich Political Economy Research Centre.
    8. Gräbner, Claudius & Hafele, Jakob, 2020. "The emergence of core-periphery structures in the European Union: A complexity perspective," ZOE Discussion Papers 6, ZOE. institute for future-fit economies, Bonn.
    9. Davide Villani & Marta Fana, 2021. "Productive integration, economic recession and employment in Europe: an assessment based on vertically integrated sectors," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 48(2), pages 137-157, June.
    10. Jakob Kapeller & Claudius Graebner & Philipp Heimberger, 2019. "Economic Polarisation in Europe: Causes and Policy Options," ICAE Working Papers 99, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    11. Riccardo Pariboni & Pasquale Tridico, 2020. "Structural change, institutions and the dynamics of labor productivity in Europe," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1275-1300, November.
    12. Philipp Heimberger, 2018. "What Explains Austria’s Export Market Performance?," wiiw Working Papers 149, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    polarization; European Monetary Union; industrial policy; financial regulation; growth trajectories;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B5 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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