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Crime Concentration and Hot Spot Dynamics in Latin America

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  • Ajzenman, Nicolás
  • Jaitman, Laura

Abstract

Latin America and the Caribbean is the most violent region in the world, with an annual homicide rate of more than 20 per 100,000 population and with an increasing trend. Yet most evidence of crime concentration, geo-temporal patterns, and event dependence comes from cities in high-income countries. Understanding crime patterns in the region and how they compare to those in high-income countries is of first-order importance to formulate crime reduction policies. This paper is the first to analyze crime patterns of cities in five Latin American countries. Using micro-geographic units of analysis, the paper finds, first, that crime in Latin America is highly concentrated in a small proportion of blocks: 50 percent of crimes are concentrated in 3 to 7.5 percent of street segments, and 25 percent of crimes are concentrated in 0.5 to 2.9 percent of street segments. This validates Weisburd's "law of crime concentration at place" (Weisburd, 2105). These figures are fairly constant over time but sensitive to major police reforms. The second finding is that hot spots of crime are not always persistent. Crime is constantly prevalent in certain areas, but in other areas hot spots either appear or disappear, suggesting a possible rational adaptation from criminals to police actions that cause crime displacement in the medium run to other areas. Finally, the paper finds a significant pattern of repeated crime victimization in location and time for property crimes. There are striking similarities with the developed world in crime concentration, although crime levels are much higher and usually increasing. There are also some differences in terms of the persistence of hot spots that pose interesting policy implications and avenues for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • Ajzenman, Nicolás & Jaitman, Laura, 2016. "Crime Concentration and Hot Spot Dynamics in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7702, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:7702
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patricia L. Brantingham & Paul J. Brantingham, 1975. "Residential Burglary and Urban Form," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 12(3), pages 273-284, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Díaz & Sebastian Fossati & Nicolás Trajtenberg, 2022. "Stay at home if you can: COVID‐19 stay‐at‐home guidelines and local crime," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 1067-1113, December.
    2. Amodio, Francesco, 2019. "Crime protection investment spillovers: Theory and evidence from the City of Buenos Aires," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 626-649.
    3. Pessino, Carola & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2018. "Better Spending for Better Lives: How Latin America and the Caribbean Can Do More with Less," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 9152, November.
    4. Galiani, Sebastian & Lopez Cruz, Ivan & Torrens, Gustavo, 2018. "Stirring up a hornets’ nest: Geographic distribution of crime," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 17-35.
    5. Gonzalez Pampillon, Nicolas, 2019. "Spillover effects from new housing supply," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103446, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Spencer P. Chainey & Gonzalo Croci & Laura Juliana Rodriguez Forero, 2021. "The Influence of Government Effectiveness and Corruption on the High Levels of Homicide in Latin America," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, May.
    7. Nicolás González-Pampillón, 2019. "Spillover effects from new housing supply," CEP Discussion Papers dp1660, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    8. Cecilia Alonso, 2018. "Transferencias Monetarias y Crimen. Evidencia para la última década en Montevideo," Documentos de Investigación Estudiantil (students working papers) 18-02, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    9. González-Pampillón, Nicolás, 2022. "Spillover effects from new housing supply," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    10. Cabrera, José María & Cid, Alejandro & Veneri, Federico, 2022. "Hot Spots, Patrolling Intensity, and Robberies: Lessons from a three-year program in Uruguay," MPRA Paper 113786, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    police strategies; crime rate; crime prevention;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K00 - Law and Economics - - General - - - General (including Data Sources and Description)
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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