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Competition for Land in the Global Bioeconomy

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  • Hertel, Thomas
  • Jevgenijs Steinbuks
  • Uris Lantz Baldos

Abstract

The global land use implications of biofuel expansion have received considerable attention in the literature over the past decade. Model-based estimates of the emissions from cropland expansion have been used to assess the environmental impacts of biofuel policies. And integrated assessment models have estimated the potential for biofuels to contribute to greenhouse gas abatement over the coming century. All of these studies feature, explicitly or implicitly, competition between biofuel feed stocks and other land uses. However, the economic mechanisms governing this competition, as well as the contribution of biofuels to global land use change, have not received the close scrutiny that they deserve. The purpose of this paper is to offer a deeper look at these factors. We begin with a comparative static analysis which assesses the impact of exogenously specified forecasts of biofuel expansion over the 2006-2035 period. Global land use change is decomposed according to the three key margins of economic response: extensive supply, intensive supply, and demand. Under the International Energy Agency’s "New Policies" scenario, biofuels account for nearly one-fifth of global land use change over the 2006-2035 period. The paper also offers a comparative dynamic analysis which determines the optimal path for first and second generation biofuels over the course of the entire 21st century. In the absence of GHG regulation, the welfare-maximizing path for global land use allocates 170 Mha to biofuel feed stocks by 2100, with the associated biofuels accounting for about 30% of global liquid fuel consumption. This area expansion is somewhat diminished by expected climate change impacts on agriculture, while it is significantly increased by a moderately aggressive GHG emissions target and by advances in conversion efficiency of second generation biofuels.

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  • Hertel, Thomas & Jevgenijs Steinbuks & Uris Lantz Baldos, 2012. "Competition for Land in the Global Bioeconomy," GTAP Working Papers 3982, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    • Handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:3982
    Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 68
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    Cited by:

    1. Viaggi, Davide, 2018. "Towards an economics of the bioeconomy: four years later," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 5(2), September.
    2. Thomas W. Hertel, 2017. "Land Use in the 21st Century: Contributing to the Global Public Good," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 213-236, May.
    3. Kumeh, Eric Mensah & Omulo, Godfrey, 2019. "Youth’s access to agricultural land in Sub-Saharan Africa: A missing link in the global land grabbing discourse," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Troxler, David & Zabel, Astrid, 2021. "Clearing forests to make way for a sustainable economy transition in Switzerland," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Sarah Jansen & William Foster & Gustavo Anríquez & Jorge Ortega, 2021. "Understanding Farm-Level Incentives within the Bioeconomy Framework: Prices, Product Quality, Losses, and Bio-Based Alternatives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, January.
    6. Food and Agricultural Organization [FAO], 2016. "Climate Change and Food Systems: Global Assessments and Implications for Food Security and Trade," Working Papers id:8512, eSocialSciences.
    7. Sotiropoulou, Irene & Deutz, Pauline, 2021. "Understanding the bioeconomy: a new sustainability economy in British and European public discourse," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 10(4), December.
    8. Camila Fritzen Cidón & Dusan Schreiber & Paola Schmitt Figueiró, 2024. "Bioeconomics applied to organic agriculture enhance social and environmental impact of Brazilian properties," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(10), pages 26085-26113, October.
    9. Pedro Naso; Ozgun Haznedar; Bruno Lanz; Timothy Swanson, 2021. "Food Security in the Long-Run:A Macroeconomic Approach to Land Use Policy," CIES Research Paper series 71-2021, Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute.
    10. Jakob Hoffmann & Johannes Glückler, 2023. "Technological Cohesion and Convergence: A Main Path Analysis of the Bioeconomy, 1900–2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-17, August.
    11. Vorotnikova, Ekaterina & Seale, James L, 2014. "The Effect of Energy Policy Act (EPA-2005) on Agricultural Land Allocation Dynamics in the United States," 2014 Annual Meeting, February 1-4, 2014, Dallas, Texas 162553, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    12. Malkamäki, Arttu & Korhonen, Jaana E. & Berghäll, Sami & Berg Rustas, Carolina & Bernö, Hanna & Carreira, Ariane & D'Amato, Dalia & Dobrovolsky, Alexander & Giertliová, Blanka & Holmgren, Sara & Mark-, 2022. "Public perceptions of using forests to fuel the European bioeconomy: Findings from eight university cities," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    13. Britz, Wolfgang & Li, Jingwen & Shang, Linmei, 2021. "Combining large-scale sensitivity analysis in Computable General Equilibrium models with Machine Learning: An Example Application to policy supporting the bio-economy," Conference papers 333285, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Haqiqi, Iman & Taheripour, Farzad & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2016. "Climate Change, Food Production, and Welfare," Conference papers 332785, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Naso, Pedro & Haznedar, Ozgun & Lanz, Bruno & Swanson, Tim, 2022. "A macroeconomic approach to global land use policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    16. Bruckner, Martin & Fischer, Günther & Tramberend, Sylvia & Giljum, Stefan, 2015. "Measuring telecouplings in the global land system: A review and comparative evaluation of land footprint accounting methods," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 11-21.
    17. Claudia Ringler & Dirk Willenbockel & Nicostrato Perez & Mark Rosegrant & Tingju Zhu & Nathanial Matthews, 2016. "Global linkages among energy, food and water: an economic assessment," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 6(1), pages 161-171, March.
    18. Camila Fritzen Cidón & Paola Schmitt Figueiró & Dusan Schreiber, 2021. "Benefits of Organic Agriculture under the Perspective of the Bioeconomy: A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-19, June.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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