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Macro and micro effects of subsidy cuts: a short-run CGE analysis for Egypt

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  • Lofgren, Hans

Abstract

Using a Computable General Equilibrium model for Egypt based on data for 1991/92, this paper analyzes the short-run impact of removing price-distorting subsidies for oil products sold domestically and for commodities covered by the consumer subsidy program. The model merges neoclassical and structuralist features. Two sets of simulations are conducted. The first involves raising the price of domestic oil products to international levels; the second simulates the impact of removing consumer subsidies. Each policy gives rise to an increase in government savings. The analysis is focused on imposing alternative macro closures in order to explore trade-offs between alternative uses for these savings: foreign debt repayment (adding to Egypt's net foreign assets), domestic investment, and government transfers to the households. The results indicate that both policies are contractionary, across all macro closures. The strongest fall in real GDP and other indicators resulted from paying back foreign debt. For the other two cases, the savings were used in a manner which simulated the domestic economy, with a trade-off between investing and improving current household conditions. On the micro level, the oil policy simulations showed a decline in domestic oil use by 6-8 percent (with an accompanying reduction in air pollution) and larger exports. For the consumer subsidy cut, the household consumption fall was relatively limited for food due to low income and price elasticities; most of the consumption cut affected other industrial goods and services. Sensitivity analysis suggested that one structuralist feature mark-up pricing and excess capacity in much of the economy had a strong impact on the results; when profit maximization and no excess capacity was assumed for most sectors, the changes in real GDP and other variables were much smaller.

Suggested Citation

  • Lofgren, Hans, 1995. "Macro and micro effects of subsidy cuts: a short-run CGE analysis for Egypt," TMD discussion papers 5, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:fpr:tmddps:5
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    File URL: https://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/publications/tmdp05.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Tooraj Jamasb & Rabindra Nepal & Govinda R. Tmilsina, 2017. "A Quarter Century Effort Yet to Come of Age: A Survey of Electricity Sector Reform in Developing Countries," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(3), pages 195-234, May.
    2. Zahra Zarepour, 2022. "Short- and long-run macroeconomic impacts of the 2010 Iranian energy subsidy reform," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(10), pages 1-32, October.
    3. Herbert W. V. Hasudungan & Sulthon S. Sabaruddin, 2016. "The Impact of Fiscal Reform on Indonesian Macroeconomy: A CGE Framework," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(3), pages 181-202, September.
    4. Coady, David & Parry, Ian & Sears, Louis & Shang, Baoping, 2017. "How Large Are Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 11-27.
    5. Mr. David Coady & Ian W.H. Parry & Louis Sears & Baoping Shang, 2015. "How Large Are Global Energy Subsidies?," IMF Working Papers 2015/105, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Wang, Yanxiang & Ali Almazrooei, Shaikha & Kapsalyamova, Zhanna & Diabat, Ali & Tsai, I-Tsung, 2016. "Utility subsidy reform in Abu Dhabi: A review and a Computable General Equilibrium analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1352-1362.
    7. Hassanain, Khalifa, 1997. "External shocks and the real exchange rate: a simulation model for Egypt," ISU General Staff Papers 1997010108000012989, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    8. Tooraj Jamasb & Rabindra Nepal & Govinda Timilsina & Michael Toman, 2014. "Energy Sector Reform, Economic Efficiency and Poverty Reduction," Discussion Papers Series 529, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    9. Jamasb,Tooraj & Nepal,Rabindra & Timilsina,Govinda R., 2015. "A quarter century effort yet to come of age : a survey of power sector reforms in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7330, The World Bank.
    10. Kherallah, Mylene & Lofgren, Hans & Gruhn, Peter & Reeder, Meyra M., 2000. "Wheat policy reform in Egypt: adjustment of local markets and options for future reforms," Research reports 115, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    11. David Coady & Ian W H Parry & Baoping Shang, 2018. "Energy Price Reform: Lessons for Policymakers," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(2), pages 197-219.

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