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Consumption Dynamics and Welfare Under Non-Gaussian Earnings Risk

Author

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  • Fatih Guvenen
  • Rocio Madera
  • Serdar Ozkan

Abstract

CORRECT ORDER OF AUTHORS: Fatih Guvenen, Serdar Ozkan, and Rocio Madera. The order of coauthors has been assigned randomly using AEA’s Author Randomization Tool. Recent empirical studies document that the distribution of earnings changes displays substantial deviations from lognormality: in particular, earnings changes are negatively skewed with extremely high kurtosis (long and thick tails), and these non-Gaussian features vary substantially both over the life cycle and with the earnings level of individuals. Furthermore, earnings changes display nonlinear (asymmetric) mean reversion. In this paper, we embed a very rich “benchmark earnings process” that captures these non-Gaussian and nonlinear features into a lifecycle consumption-saving model and study its implications for consumption dynamics, consumption insurance, and welfare. We show four main results. First, the benchmark process essentially matches the empirical lifetime earnings inequality—a first-order proxy for consumption inequality—whereas the canonical Gaussian (persistent-plus-transitory) process understates it by a factor of five to ten. Second, the welfare cost of idiosyncratic risk implied by the benchmark process is between two-to-four times higher than the canonical Gaussian one. Third, the standard method in the literature for measuring the pass-through of income shocks to consumption—can significantly overstate the degree of consumption smoothing possible under non-Gaussian shocks. Fourth, the marginal propensity to consume out of transitory income (e.g., from a stimulus check) is higher under non-Gaussian earnings risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatih Guvenen & Rocio Madera & Serdar Ozkan, 2024. "Consumption Dynamics and Welfare Under Non-Gaussian Earnings Risk," Working Papers 2024-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 27 Jul 2024.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:98700
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2024.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Elin Halvorsen & Joachim Hubmer & Serdar Ozkan & Sergio Salgado, 2024. "Why Are the Wealthiest So Wealthy? New Longitudinal Empirical Evidence and Implications for Theories of Wealth Inequality," Working Papers 2024-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    idiosyncratic earnings risk; higher-order earnings risk; non-Gaussian shocks; incomplete markets models; consumption insurance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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