IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedhwp/wp-2014-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

AIG in Hindsight

Author

Listed:

Abstract

The near-failure on September 16, 2008, of American International Group (AIG) was an iconic moment in the financial crisis. The decision to rescue AIG was controversial at the time and remains so. Large bets on real estate pushed AIG to the brink of bankruptcy. In one case, AIG used securities lending to transform insurance company assets into residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), ultimately losing at least $21 billion and threatening the solvency of the life insurance companies. AIG also sold insurance on multi-sector CDOs, backed by real estate assets, ultimately losing more than $30 billion. These activities were apparently motivated by a belief that AIG?s real estate bets would not suffer defaults and were ?money-good.? We find that these securities have in fact suffered write-downs and that the stark ?money-good? claim can be rejected.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert McDonald & Anna L. Paulson, 2014. "AIG in Hindsight," Working Paper Series WP-2014-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2014-07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/working_papers/2014/wp2014_07.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Stefan Nagel & Dmitry Orlov, 2014. "Sizing Up Repo," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2381-2417, December.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    3. Darrell Duffie, 1999. "Credit Swap Valuation," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 73-87, January.
    4. Viral V. Acharya & Douglas Gale & Tanju Yorulmazer, 2011. "Rollover Risk and Market Freezes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1177-1209, August.
    5. Reena Aggarwal & Pedro A. C. Saffi & Jason Sturgess, 2015. "The Role of Institutional Investors in Voting: Evidence from the Securities Lending Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(5), pages 2309-2346, October.
    6. Acharya, Viral V. & Schnabl, Philipp & Suarez, Gustavo, 2013. "Securitization without risk transfer," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 515-536.
    7. Tobias Adrian & Brian Begalle & Adam Copeland & Antoine Martin, 2013. "Repo and Securities Lending," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, pages 131-148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Marcin Kacperczyk & Philipp Schnabl, 2010. "When Safe Proved Risky: Commercial Paper during the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 29-50, Winter.
    9. Fernando Duarte & Thomas M. Eisenbach, 2021. "Fire‐Sale Spillovers and Systemic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1251-1294, June.
    10. Heaton, John C. & Lucas, Deborah & McDonald, Robert L., 2010. "Is mark-to-market accounting destabilizing? Analysis and implications for policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 64-75, January.
    11. Andrew Ellul & Chotibhak Jotikasthira & Christian T. Lundblad & Yihui Wang, 2014. "Mark-to-market accounting and systemic risk: evidence from the insurance industry [Mark-to-market accounting and cash-in-the-market pricing]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(78), pages 297-341.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. FSOC and Systemic Risk: Treasury's Report
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2017-11-20 20:14:14
    2. Stress Testing Financial Networks: The Case of CCPs
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-03-18 12:19:47

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed Mehedi Nizam, 2021. "Cost, uncertainties and profit in commercial and social insurances," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-28, July.
    2. Farmer, J Doyne & Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa M & Nahai-Williamson, Paul & Wetzer, Thom, 2020. "Foundations of system-wide financial stress testing with heterogeneous institutions," Bank of England working papers 861, Bank of England.
    3. Czech, Robert, 2021. "Credit default swaps and corporate bond trading," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    4. Bruno Biais & Florian Heider & Marie Hoerova, 2021. "Variation Margins, Fire Sales, and Information-constrained Optimality [Leverage, Moral Hazard, and Liquidity]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(6), pages 2654-2686.
    5. Flood, Mark D. & Kenett, Dror Y. & Lumsdaine, Robin L. & Simon, Jonathan K., 2020. "The Complexity of Bank Holding Companies: A Topological Approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    6. Girardi, Giulio & Hanley, Kathleen W. & Nikolova, Stanislava & Pelizzon, Loriana & Sherman, Mila Getmansky, 2021. "Portfolio similarity and asset liquidation in the insurance industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 69-96.
    7. Sebastiano Michele Zema, 2023. "Uncovering the network structure of non-centrally cleared derivative markets: evidence from large regulatory data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(4), pages 1799-1822, October.
    8. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Borghan Narajabad & Stephane Verani, 2016. "Securities Lending as Wholesale Funding: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry," NBER Working Papers 22774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Stefan Gissler & Stephane Verani, 2019. "Over-the-Counter Market Liquidity and Securities Lending," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 33, pages 272-294, July.
    10. Cont, Rama & Kotlicki, Artur & Valderrama, Laura, 2020. "Liquidity at risk: Joint stress testing of solvency and liquidity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    11. Uhlig, Harald & Ospina, Juan, 2018. "Mortgage-Backed Securities and the Financial Crisis of 2008: a Post Mortem," CEPR Discussion Papers 12852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Corradin, Stefano & Heider, Florian & Hoerova, Marie, 2017. "On collateral: implications for financial stability and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2107, European Central Bank.
    13. Michelle L. Barnes, 2016. "Did life insurers benefit from TARP or regulatory forbearance during the financial crisis of 2008–2009?," Working Papers 16-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    14. Franch, Fabio & Nocciola, Luca & Vouldis, Angelos, 2024. "Temporal networks and financial contagion," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    15. Ralph S.J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2017. "Risk of Life Insurers: Recent Trends and Transmission Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 23365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Alexandra de Jong & Alin Draghiciu & Linda Fache Rousová & Alessandro Fontana & Elisa Letizia, 2019. "Impact of Variation Margining on EU Insurers’ Liquidity: An Analysis of Interest Rate Swaps Positions," EIOPA Financial Stability Report - Thematic Articles 16, EIOPA, Risks and Financial Stability Department.
    17. Regele, Fabian & Gründl, Helmut, 2021. "Asset concentration risk and insurance solvency regulation," ICIR Working Paper Series 40/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    18. Carmela D’Avino, 2019. "Extraterritoriality of swaps regulation and regulatory arbitrage," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 167-187, December.
    19. Pascal Böni & Heinz Zimmermann, 2024. "The Credit Suisse bailout in hindsight: not a bitter pill to swallow, but a case to follow," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 38(1), pages 1-35, March.
    20. Karolina Puławska, 2021. "Financial Stability of European Insurance Companies during the COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-16, June.
    21. Kraft, Pepa & Xie, Yuan & Zhou, Ling, 2020. "The intraday timing of rating changes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    22. Allen, Linda & Tang, Yi, 2016. "What’s the contingency? A proposal for bank contingent capital triggered by systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-14.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel Covitz & Nellie Liang & Tobias Adrian, 2015. "Financial Stability Monitoring," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 357-395, December.
    2. Christoph Aymanns & Co-Pierre Georg & Benjamin Golub, 2017. "Illiquidity spirals in Coupled Over-The-Counter Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1810, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    3. Tobias Adrian & Nellie Liang, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Financial Conditions, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 73-131, January.
    4. Luck, Stephan & Schempp, Paul, 2014. "Banks, shadow banking, and fragility," Working Paper Series 1726, European Central Bank.
    5. Majid Haghani Rizi & N. Kundan Kishor & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2019. "The dynamic relationship among the money market mutual funds, the commercial paper market, and the repo market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 395-414, March.
    6. Greenwood, Robin & Landier, Augustin & Thesmar, David, 2015. "Vulnerable banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 471-485.
    7. Nathan Foley-Fisher & Borghan Narajabad & Stephane Verani, 2016. "Securities Lending as Wholesale Funding: Evidence from the U.S. Life Insurance Industry," NBER Working Papers 22774, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Tobias Adrian & Adam B. Ashcraft, 2012. "Shadow Banking Regulation," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 99-140, October.
    9. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-045 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Koenig, Philipp & Pothier, David, 2016. "Information acquisition and liquidity dry-ups," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-045, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    11. Antoine Martin & David Skeie & Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 2014. "Repo Runs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 957-989.
    12. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    13. Gorton, Gary & Metrick, Andrew, 2012. "Securitized banking and the run on repo," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 425-451.
    14. Donaldson, Jason & Piacentino, Giorgia, 2019. "Money Runs," CEPR Discussion Papers 13955, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Gertler, M. & Kiyotaki, N. & Prestipino, A., 2016. "Wholesale Banking and Bank Runs in Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1345-1425, Elsevier.
    16. Zhou, Zhongzheng, 2019. "Liquidity Backup from Commercial Banks to Shadow Banks," MPRA Paper 94713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Arianna Miglietta & Cristina Picillo & Mario Pietrunti, 2015. "The impact of CCPs� margin policies on Repo markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1028, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Christoph Aymanns & J. Doyne Farmer & Alissa M. Keinniejenhuis & Thom Wetzer, 2017. "Models of Financial Stability and their Application in Stress Tests," Working Papers on Finance 1805, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    19. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 2013. "A Model of Shadow Banking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(4), pages 1331-1363, August.
    20. Corradin, Stefano & Heider, Florian & Hoerova, Marie, 2017. "On collateral: implications for financial stability and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2107, European Central Bank.
    21. Martin, Antoine & Skeie, David & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2014. "The fragility of short-term secured funding markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 15-42.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    American International Group (AIG); Bankruptcy; Insurance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2014-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lauren Wiese (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbchus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.