IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/1398.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

New Evidence on the US Excess Return on Foreign Portfolios

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We provide new estimates of the return on US external claims and liabilities using confidential, high-quality, security-level data. The excess return is positive on average, since claims are tilted toward higher-return equities. The excess return is large and positive in normal times but large and negative during global crises, reflecting the global insurance role of the US external balance sheet. Controlling for issuer's nationality, we find that US investors have a larger exposure to equity issued by Asia-headquartered corporations than reported in the aggregate statistics. Finally, equity portfolios are concentrated in 'superstar' firms, but for US liabilities foreign holdings are less concentrated than the overall market.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol C. Bertaut & Stephanie E. Curcuru & Ester Faia & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2024. "New Evidence on the US Excess Return on Foreign Portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 1398, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1398
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2024.1398
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1398.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.17016/IFDP.2024.1398?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
    2. Engel, Charles & Bianchi, Javier & Bigio, Saki, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 16712, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Burger, John D. & Warnock, Francis E., 2007. "Foreign participation in local currency bond markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 291-304.
    4. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2008. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 358-393, March.
    5. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Matthew Smith & Owen Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2024. "Tax Policy and Investment in a Global Economy," Working Papers 328, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    6. Christopher M. Meissner & Alan M. Taylor, 2006. "Losing our marbles in the new century?: the great rebalancing in historical perspective," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 51.
    7. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Peter K. Schott, 2006. "Transfer Pricing by U.S.-Based Multinational Firms," NBER Working Papers 12493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Atkeson, Andy & Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2022. "The End of Privilege: A Reexamination of the Net Foreign Asset Position of the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 17268, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E., 2013. "On returns differentials," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-25.
    10. Goldberg, Linda & Tille, Cédric, 2009. "Macroeconomic interdependence and the international role of the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 990-1003, October.
    11. Carol Bertaut & Beau Bressler & Stephanie E Curcuru, 2019. "Globalization and the geography of capital flows," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are post-crisis statistical initiatives completed?, volume 49, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. James R. Hines & Eric M. Rice, 1994. "Fiscal Paradise: Foreign Tax Havens and American Business," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 149-182.
    13. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Matthew Smith & Owen M. Zidar & Eric Zwick, 2024. "Tax Policy and Investment in a Global Economy," NBER Working Papers 32180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2014. "Do intangible assets explain high U.S. foreign direct investment returns?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 159-171.
    2. Alberto Fuertes, 2022. "External adjustment with a common currency: the case of the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2205-2238, May.
    3. Mileva, Mariya, 2015. "Valuation effects and long-run real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 390-408.
    4. Canzoneri, Matthew & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad & López-Salido, David, 2013. "Key currency status: An exorbitant privilege and an extraordinary risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 371-393.
    5. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2023. "Collateral Advantage: Exchange Rates, Capital Flows and Global Cycles," NBER Working Papers 31164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Katarzyna A. Bilicka & Michael P. Devereux & İrem Güçeri, 2024. "Tax Policy, Investment and Profit Shifting," NBER Working Papers 33132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alberto Fuertes, 2019. "Exchange rate regime and external adjustment: An empirical investigation for the US," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 1373-1399, May.
    8. Laura Alfaro & Ester Faia & Ruth A. Judson & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2020. "Elusive Safety: The New Geography of Capital Flows and Risk," NBER Working Papers 27048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Daniel Anarfi & Danuše Nerudová, 2018. "Profit Shifting and the Tax Response of Multinational Banks in Eastern Europe," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 66(3), pages 729-736.
    10. Zhengyang Jiang, 2024. "Exorbitant Privilege: A Safe-Asset View," CESifo Working Paper Series 11279, CESifo.
    11. Arnt Ove Hopland & Petro Lisowsky & Mohammed Mardan & Dirk Schindler, 2014. "Income Shifting under Losses," CESifo Working Paper Series 5130, CESifo.
    12. Curcuru, Stephanie E. & Thomas, Charles P. & Warnock, Francis E., 2013. "On returns differentials," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-25.
    13. Lidia Smitkova, 2023. "Profits, ‘Superstar’ Firms and Capital Flows," Economics Series Working Papers 1030, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    14. Miller, Marcus, 2006. "Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and 'Self-insurance'," CEPR Discussion Papers 6000, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Sergio Florez-Orrego & Matteo Maggiori & Jesse Schreger & Ziwen Sun & Serdil Tinda, 2024. "Global Capital Allocation," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 16(1), pages 623-653, August.
    16. Hill, Brian & Michalski, Tomasz, 2018. "Risk versus ambiguity and international security design," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 74-105.
    17. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vincenzo Quadrini, "undated". "Unstable Prosperity:How Globalization Made the World Economy More Volatile," PIER Working Paper Archive 23-003, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    18. Rogoff, Kenneth S. & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2015. "Japan’s exorbitant privilege," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 43-61.
    19. McCauley, Robert N., 2015. "Does the US dollar confer an exorbitant privilege?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-14.
    20. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Helene Rey & Nicolas Govillot, 2010. "Exorbitant Privilege and Exorbitant Duty," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-20, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Cross-border investment; Exorbitant privilege;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1398. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.