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The impact of AIDS on income and human capital

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  • Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti
  • Santos, Marcelo Rodrigues dos
  • Pessôa, Samuel de Abreu

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of HIV/AIDS on per capita income and education. It explores two channels from HIV/AIDS to income that have not been sufficiently stressed by the literature: the reduction of the incentives to study due to shorter expected longevity and the reduction of productivity of experienced workers. In the model individuals live for three periods, may get infected in the second period and with some probability die of Aids before reaching the third period of their life. Parents care for the welfare of the future generations so that they will maximize lifetime utility of their dynasty. The simulations predict that the most affected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in the future, on average, thirty percent poorer than they would be without AIDS. Schooling will decline in some cases by forty percent. These figures are dramatically reduced with widespread medical treatment, as it increases the survival probability and productivity of infected individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Santos, Marcelo Rodrigues dos & Pessôa, Samuel de Abreu, 2009. "The impact of AIDS on income and human capital," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 690, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgewp:690
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tamara Fioroni, 2017. "Human capital and fertility: child vs adult survival," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1982-1995.
    2. Gori, Luca & Manfredi, Piero & Sodini, Mauro, 2021. "A Parsimonious Model Of Longevity, Fertility, Hiv Transmission And Development," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1155-1174, July.
    3. Gori, Luca & Lupi, Enrico & Manfredi, Piero & Sodini, Mauro, 2020. "A contribution to the theory of economic development and the demographic transition: fertility reversal under the HIV epidemic," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(2), pages 125-155, June.
    4. Bidzha, Mashudu Lucas & Ngepah, Nicholas & Greyling, Talita, 2024. "The impact of antiretroviral treatment on the relationship between HIV/AIDS and economic growth," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 368-387.

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