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Economic insecurity and the demand for populism in Europe

Author

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  • Guiso, L.
  • Herrera, H.
  • Morelli, M.
  • Sonno, Tommaso

Abstract

We document the spiral of populism in Europe and the direct and indirect role of economic insecurity shocks. Using survey data on individual voting, we make two contributions to the literature. (i) Economic insecurity shocks have a significant impact on the populist vote share, directly as demand for protection, and indirectly through the induced changes in trust and attitudes. (ii) A key consequence of increased economic insecurity is a drop in turnout. The impact of this largely neglected turnout effect is substantial: conditional on voting, when economic insecurity increases, almost 40% of the induced change in the vote for a populist party comes from the turnout channel.

Suggested Citation

  • Guiso, L. & Herrera, H. & Morelli, M. & Sonno, Tommaso, 2024. "Economic insecurity and the demand for populism in Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122069, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:122069
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    1. Gianmarco Daniele & Andrea F. M. Martinangeli & Francesco Passarelli & Willem Sas & Lisa Windsteiger, 2024. "Pandemic distress and anti‐immigration sentiments," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(363), pages 1124-1155, July.
    2. Bergh, Andreas & Kärnä, Anders, 2024. "Populist Parties’ Popularity Post Power," Working Paper Series 1491, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    3. Jésus Fernández-Villaverde & Carlos Sanz & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2024. "Classical Right, New Right, and Voting Behavior: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 11179, CESifo.
    4. Federico Favaretto & Michele Mariani, 2024. "EDMocracy: populism and democratic dissatisfaction in Europe," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24219, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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