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The twin deficits, monetary instability and debt crises in the history of modern Greece

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  • Alogoskoufis, George

Abstract

This paper reviews, analyses and interprets the determinants and the implications of the twin, fiscal and current account, deficits in the history of modern Greece. The analysis focuses on the determinants and the dynamic interactions among the twin deficits, domestic monetary regimes, and access to international borrowing. Two are the main conclusions: First, when Greece did not have access to international borrowing, fiscal imbalances usually led to monetary destabilization and inflation. Second, when it did have access to international borrowing, fiscal imbalances were generally larger, led to external deficits and, eventually, sovereign debt crises and defaults. The monetary and exchange rate regime also mattered. The 1950s and 1960s were the only prolonged period in which the twin deficits were tackled effectively and, as a result, the only period in which Greece enjoyed high economic growth, monetary stability, and external balance simultaneously.

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  • Alogoskoufis, George, 2023. "The twin deficits, monetary instability and debt crises in the history of modern Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120344, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:120344
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    File URL: https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/120344/
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    Cited by:

    1. George Alogoskoufis, 2024. "Before and After the Political Transition of 1974 Institutions, Politics, and the Economy of Post-War Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 198, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    2. Mamatzakis, Emmanuel C., 2024. "High Greek bank net interest margins, recapitalisations and competition," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124476, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Emmanuel C Mamatzakis, 2024. "High Greek Bank Net Interest Margins, Recapitalisations and Competition," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 199, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    4. Spyros Economides, 2024. "Konstantinos Karamanlis and Leadership in Foreign Policy," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 195, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    5. Alogoskoufis, George, 2024. "Before and after the political transition of 1974: institutions, politics, and the economy of post-war Greece," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124056, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    modern Greece; economic history; institutions; fiscal policy; monetary policy; debt crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative

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