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Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model

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Abstract

This paper uses a structurally estimated macroeconometric model, denoted the MC model, to evaluate inflation targeting in the United States. Various interest rate rules are tried with differing weights on inflation and output, and various optimal control problems are solved using differing weights on inflation and output targets. Price-level targeting is also considered. The results show that 1) there are output costs to inflation targeting, especially for price shocks, 2) price-level targeting is dominated by inflation targeting, 3) the estimated interest rate rule of the Fed (in Table 4) is consistent with the Fed placing equal weights on inflation and unemployment in a loss function, 4) the estimated interest rate rule does a fairly good job at lowering variability, and 5) considerable economic variability is left after the Fed has done its best. Overall, the results suggest that the Fed should continue to behave as it has in the past.

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  • Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1570, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Mar 2007.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1570
    Note: CFP 1570.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ray Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2590, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2007.
    2. Maik H. Wolters, 2015. "Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 74-96, January.
    3. Fair, Ray C., 2012. "Has macro progressed?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 2-10.
    4. Fair Ray C, 2007. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, June.
    5. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000415, UCLA Department of Economics.
    6. Ivrendi, Mehmet & Guloglu, Bulent, 2010. "Monetary shocks, exchange rates and trade balances: Evidence from inflation targeting countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1144-1155, September.
    7. Айвазян С.А. & Березняцкий А.Н.* & Бродский Б.Е.**, 2019. "Неравновесные Структурные Модели Реального Сектора Российской Экономики," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 55(2), pages 65-80, апрель.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; Interest rate rules; Optimal control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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