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Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks

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  • Georgios Georgiadis

    (European Central Bank)

  • Martina Jancokova

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

Financial globalisation and spillovers have gained immense prominence over the last two decades. Yet, powerful cross-border financial spillover channels have not become a standard element of structural monetary models. Against this back- ground, we hypothesise that New Keynesian DSGE models that do not feature powerful financial spillover channels confound the effects of domestic and foreign disturbances when confronted with the data. We derive predictions from this hypothesis and subject them to data on monetary policy shock estimates for 29 economies obtained from more than 280 monetary models in the literature. Consistent with the predictions from our hypothesis we find: Monetary policy shock estimates obtained from New Keynesian DSGE models that do not account for powerful financial spillover channels are contaminated by a common global component; the contamination is more severe for economies that are more susceptible to financial spillovers in the data; and the shock estimates imply implausibly similar estimates of the global output spillovers from monetary policy in the US and the euro area. None of these findings applies to monetary policy shock estimates obtained from VAR and other statistical models, financial market expectations and the narrative approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgios Georgiadis & Martina Jancokova, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2017_008, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    • Handle: RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2017_008
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    2. Filardo, Andrew J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2020. "The cross-border credit channel and lending standards surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Gómez-Pineda, Javier G., 2020. "Volatility spillovers and the global financial cycle across economies: Evidence from a global semi-structural model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 331-373.
    4. Lodge, David & Pérez, Javier J. & Albrizio, Silvia & Everett, Mary & De Bandt, Olivier & Georgiadis, Georgios & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Lastauskas, Povilas & Carluccio, Juan & Parrága, Susana & Carvalho,, 2021. "The implications of globalisation for the ECB monetary policy strategy," Occasional Paper Series 263, European Central Bank.
    5. Javier G. Gómez-Pineda, 2017. "Volatility Spillovers and Systemic Risk Across Economies: Evidence from a Global Semi-Structural Model," Borradores de Economia 1011, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Çekin, Semih Emre & Ivashchenko, Sergey & Gupta, Rangan & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2024. "Real-time forecast of DSGE models with time-varying volatility in GARCH form," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    7. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "Monetary and Fiscal Spillovers Across the Atlantic: The Role of Financial Markets," DEM Working Papers 2021/09, Department of Economics and Management.
    8. Carlos Caceres & Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Bertrand Gruss, 2016. "Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy," IMF Working Papers 2016/108, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Feng, Huiqun & Zhang, Jun & Guo, Na, 2023. "Time-varying linkages between energy and stock markets: Dynamic spillovers and driving factors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).

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    10. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial globalisation; spillovers; monetary policy shocks; New Keynesian DSGE models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General

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