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Asia?s Growth, the Changing Geography of World Trade, and Food Security: Projections to 2030

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  • Anderson, Kym
  • Strutt, Anna

Abstract

Rapid trade-led economic growth in emerging Asia has been shifting the global economic and industrial centres of gravity away from the north Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade but also altering the commodity composition of trade by Asia and other regions. What began with Japan in the 1950s and Korea and Taiwan from the late 1960s has spread to the much more populous ASEAN region, China and India. This paper examines how that growth and associated structural changes are altering agricultural markets in particular and thereby food security. It does so retrospectively and by projecting a model of the world economy which compares alternative growth strategies, trade policy scenarios and savings behaviours to 2030. Projected impacts on sectoral shares of GDP, ?openness? to trade and the composition and direction of trade are drawn out, followed by effects of the boom in non-farm sectors on agricultural self-sufficiency and real food consumption per capita in Asia and elsewhere. The paper concludes by drawing implications for policies that can address more efficiently Asia?s concerns about food security and rural-urban income disparity than the trade policy measures used by earlier-industrializing Northeast Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, Kym & Strutt, Anna, 2012. "Asia?s Growth, the Changing Geography of World Trade, and Food Security: Projections to 2030," CEPR Discussion Papers 8950, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8950
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    Cited by:

    1. Lionel Fontagné & Jean Fouré & Alexander Keck, 2017. "Simulating World Trade in the Decades Ahead: Driving Forces and Policy Implications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 36-55, January.
    2. Kym Anderson & Glyn Wittwer, 2019. "Asia’s Evolving Role in Global Wine Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Kym Anderson (ed.), The International Economics of Wine, chapter 14, pages 347-377, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Kym Anderson & Anna Strutt, 2016. "Impacts of Emerging Asia on African and Latin American Trade: Projections to 2030," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 172-194, February.
    4. Fontagné, Lionel & Fouré, Jean, 2013. "Opening a Pandora's box: Modeling world trade patterns at the 2035 horizon," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2013-09, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    5. Kym Anderson & Hans Grinsted Jensen & Signe Nelgen & Anna Strutt, 2016. "What is the Appropriate Counterfactual When Estimating Effects of Multilateral Trade Policy Reform?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 764-778, September.
    6. Wen, Ting & Qi, Sinan & Qian, Yue, 2024. "Index measurement and analysis on spatial-temporal evolution of China's new economy based on the DPSIR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 252-264.
    7. Bekkers, Eddy & Corong, Erwin L. & Métivier, Jeanne & Orlov, Daniil, 2023. "How will global trade patterns evolve in the long run?," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2023-03, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global economy-wide model projections; Asian economic growth and structural change; South-south trade; Booming sector economics; Food security;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade

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