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A Banking Explanation of the US Velocity of Money: 1919-2004

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  • Kejak, Michal
  • Gillman, Max
  • Benk, Szilárd

Abstract

The paper shows that US GDP velocity of M1 money has exhibited long cycles around a 1.25% per year upward trend, during the 1919-2004 period. It explains the velocity cycles through shocks constructed from a DSGE model and annual time series data (Ingram et al., 1994). Model velocity is stable along the balanced growth path, which features endogenous growth and decentralized banking that produces exchange credit. Positive shocks to credit productivity and money supply increase velocity, as money demand falls, while a positive goods productivity shock raises temporary output and velocity. The paper explains such velocity volatility at both business cycle and long run frequencies. With filtered velocity turning negative, starting during the 1930s and the 1987 crashes, and again around 2003, results suggest that the money and credit shocks appear to be more important for velocity during less stable times and the goods productivity shock more important during stable times.

Suggested Citation

  • Kejak, Michal & Gillman, Max & Benk, Szilárd, 2009. "A Banking Explanation of the US Velocity of Money: 1919-2004," CEPR Discussion Papers 7544, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7544
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    Cited by:

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    2. Szilard Benk & Tamas Csabafi & Jing Dang & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2016. "Tuning in RBC Growth Spectra," IMF Working Papers 2016/215, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Tamas Z. Csabafi & Max Gillman & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2019. "International Business Cycle and Financial Intermediation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2293-2303, December.
    4. Gunes Kamber & Christoph Thoenissen, 2011. "Financial intermediation and the internationalbusiness cycle: The case of small countries with big banks," CAMA Working Papers 2011-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Gillman Max, 2020. "The welfare cost of inflation with banking time," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-20, January.
    6. Benk, Szilard & Gillman, Max, 2023. "Identifying money and inflation expectation shocks to real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2018. "Deficit, monetization, and economic growth: a case for multiplicity and indeterminacy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 65(4), pages 819-853, June.
    8. Andras Simonovits, 2009. "Underreported earnings and age-specific income redistribution in post-socialist economies," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 0927, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    9. Pedro Mazeda Gil & Gustavo Iglésias,, 2018. "Endogenous Growth and Real Effects of Monetary Policy: R&D and Physical Capital Complementarities in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," CEF.UP Working Papers 1802, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    10. Francisco Callado-Muñoz & Jana Hromcová & Natalia Utrero-González, 2014. "Openness and Technology Diffusion in Payment Systems: The Case of NAFTA," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 497-519, April.
    11. Luisanna Onnis & Patrizio Tirelli, 2015. "Shadow economy: Does it matter for money velocity?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(3), pages 839-858, November.
    12. Giulia Ghiani & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2016. "Persistent Liquidity," Working Papers 1010, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
    13. Basu, Parantap & Gillman, Max & Pearlman, Joseph, 2012. "Inflation, human capital and Tobin's q," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1057-1074.
    14. Ceri Davies & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2016. "Interest Rates Rules," Working Papers 1009, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
    15. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2023. "A business-cycle model with money and banking: the case of Bulgaria (1999–2018)," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 122-133, February.
    16. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Giulia Ghiani, 2014. "Money, Banking and Interest Rates: Monetary Policy Regimes with Markov-Switching VECM Evidence," CEU Working Papers 2014_3, Department of Economics, Central European University.
    17. Chang, Wen-ya & Chen, Ying-an & Chang, Juin-jen, 2013. "Growth and welfare effects of monetary policy with endogenous fertility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 117-130.
    18. Ceri Davies & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2012. "Deriving the Taylor Principle when the Central Bank Supplies Money," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1225, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    19. Max Gillman, 2020. "Technical Appendix: “Income Tax Evasion: Tax Elasticity, Welfare, and Revenueâ€," Working Papers 1018, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
    20. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2010. "Money and Inflation: The Role of Persistent Velocity Movements," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2010, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    21. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Giulia Ghiani, 2014. "Money, Banking and Interest Rates: Monetary Policy Regimes with Markov-Switching VECM Evidence," CEU Working Papers 2014_3, Department of Economics, Central European University.
    22. Baomin Dong & Jiong Gong, 2014. "Special Issue: Issues in Asia. Guest Editor: Laixun Zhao," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 203-217, May.
    23. Max Gillman, 2018. "The Welfare Cost of Ináation with Banking Time," Working Papers 1014, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.
    24. Edoardo Beretta & Doris Neuberger, 2023. "Monetary aggregates in the US since 2020 and post-COVID-19 inflation: evidence from the equation of exchange," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 321-330.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; Business cycle; Credit shocks; Velocity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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