IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/2606.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rates and Trade: How Important is Hysteresis in Trade?

Author

Listed:
  • Campa, José Manuel

Abstract

This paper looks at the responsiveness of a country's export supply to exchange rate changes and measures its quantitative importance by breaking down export adjustments between changes in output levels by existing exporters (intensive margin) and movements due to changes in the number of exporters (extensive margin). Using data on a representative sample of Spanish manufacturing firms, the paper finds sunk costs hysteresis in entry and exit to be an important factor in determining export market participation, but unrelated to exchange rate uncertainty. The sunk costs of entering the market appear to be much larger than the costs of exiting the market. Finally, although hysteresis exists, its effect on the responsiveness of aggregate trade volumes to exchange rate changes is quantitatively small. A 10% home currency depreciation results in an increase in export volume due to the increase in the number of exporting firms of only 1.5% of export volume.

Suggested Citation

  • Campa, José Manuel, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Trade: How Important is Hysteresis in Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2606, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2606
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP2606
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at [email protected]
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Manski, Charles F, 1990. "Nonparametric Bounds on Treatment Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 319-323, May.
    2. Bernard, Andrew B. & Bradford Jensen, J., 1999. "Exceptional exporter performance: cause, effect, or both?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Roberts, M. & Tybout, J., 1993. "An Empirical Model of Sunk Costs and the Decision to Export," Papers 4-93-3, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    4. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
    5. Froot, Kenneth A & Klemperer, Paul D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Market Share Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 637-654, September.
    6. Bee Yan Aw & Xiaomin Chen & Mark J. Roberts, 1997. "Firm-level Evidence on Productivity Differentials, Turnover, and Exports in Taiwanese Manufacturing," NBER Working Papers 6235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    8. Zvi Eckstein & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1989. "The Specification and Estimation of Dynamic Stochastic Discrete Choice Models: A Survey," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 24(4), pages 562-598.
    9. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-785, September.
    10. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P H Kevin, 1996. "Arbitrage-Based Tests of Target-Zone Credibility: Evidence from ERM Cross-Rate Options," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 726-740, September.
    11. Butler, J S & Moffitt, Robert, 1982. "A Computationally Efficient Quadrature Procedure for the One-Factor Multinomial Probit Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 761-764, May.
    12. Rosen, Sherwin, 2007. "Studies in Labor Markets," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226726304.
    13. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226726281 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    15. G. S. Maddala, 1987. "Limited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 22(3), pages 307-338.
    16. Avinash Dixit, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 205-228.
    17. Avinash Dixit, 1992. "Investment and Hysteresis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 107-132, Winter.
    18. Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Insignificant and Inconsequential Hysteresis: The Case of U.S. Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 606-613, November.
    19. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    20. James J. Heckman, 1981. "Heterogeneity and State Dependence," NBER Chapters, in: Studies in Labor Markets, pages 91-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Campa, Joe Manuel, 1993. "Entry by Foreign Firms in the United States under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 614-622, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Roberts, M. & Tybout, J., 1993. "An Empirical Model of Sunk Costs and the Decision to Export," Papers 4-93-3, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
    2. Aida Caldera, 2010. "Innovation and exporting: evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(4), pages 657-689, December.
    3. Koutmos, Gregory & Martin, Anna D., 2003. "Asymmetric exchange rate exposure: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 365-383, June.
    4. Campbell, Douglas L., 2020. "Relative Prices and Hysteresis: Evidence from US Manufacturing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    5. Mangelsdorf, Stefan, 2010. "Die Transformation des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes in Berlin/Brandenburg unter Berücksichtigung der Exporte : eine empirische Analyse mit amtlichen Mikrodaten [The transition of the manufacturing indus," MPRA Paper 39304, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Chang, Byoung-Ky, 1999. "Three essays on imperfect competition and exchange rate pass-through in the presence of multiple exchange rates," ISU General Staff Papers 1999010108000013554, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Kannebley Jr., Sergio, 2008. "Tests for the hysteresis hypothesis in Brazilian industrialized exports: A threshold cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 171-190, March.
    8. Jose Brandao de Brito & Felipa de Mello Sampayo, 2005. "The timing and probability of FDI: an application to US multinational enterprises," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 417-437.
    9. Manitra Rakotoarisoa, 2007. "Explaining Durations in Country Investment Ratings: A Competing Risk Model with Random-Effects," EcoMod2007 23900074, EcoMod.
    10. Sérgio Kannebley Júnior & João Paulo Martins Baroni & Diogo de Prince, 2015. "Macro-Hysteresis Test for Brazilian Exports of Manufactured Products: A threshold Panel Approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 606-637, November.
    11. Fredrik SJÖHOLM & Sadayuki TAKII, 2008. "Foreign Networks And Exports: Results From Indonesian Panel Data," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 46(4), pages 428-446, December.
    12. Rakotoarisoa, Manitra A., 2017. "Path dependent and heterogeneity effects in investment risk ratings: A cross-country evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 19-35.
    13. Yuko Imura, 2023. "Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Production Networks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 77-116, December.
    14. Webber, A., 1999. "Newton's Gravity Law and Import Prices in the Asia Pacific," Economics Working Papers WP99-12, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    15. Robert, Anderton & Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2007. "The impact of monetary union on trade prices," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 19, pages 35-48.
    16. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2015. "Multi-product firms, exports and exchange rate policies. Evidence from an emerging economy," MPRA Paper 65751, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. repec:hok:dpaper:311 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen, 2004. "Entry, Expansion, and Intensity in the US Export Boom, 1987–1992," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 662-675, September.
    19. Elhanan Helpman, 2006. "Trade, FDI, and the Organization of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 589-630, September.
    20. Horag Choi & George Alessandria, 2009. "The Role of Exporting and Trade for Entry over the Business Cycle," 2009 Meeting Papers 355, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Sjöholm, Fredrik, 1999. "Do Foreign Contacts Enable Firms to Become Exporters?," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 326, Stockholm School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hysteresis; Exchange rate volatility; Entry and exit in export markets; Export elasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2606. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.