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(Machine) Learning What Policies Value

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  • Bjorkegren, Dan
  • Blumenstock, Joshua
  • Knight, Samsun

Abstract

When a policy prioritizes one person over another, is it because they benefit more, or because they are preferred? This paper develops a method to uncover the values consistent with observed allocation decisions. We use machine learning methods to estimate how much each individual benefits from an intervention, and then reconcile its allocation with (i) the welfare weights assigned to different people; (ii) heterogeneous treatment effects of the intervention; and (iii) weights on different outcomes. We demonstrate this approach by analyzing Mexico's PROGRESA anti-poverty program. The analysis reveals that while the program prioritized certain subgroups -- such as indigenous households -- the fact that those groups benefited more implies that they were in fact assigned a lower welfare weight. The PROGRESA case illustrates how the method makes it possible to audit existing policies, and to design future policies that better align with values.

Suggested Citation

  • Bjorkegren, Dan & Blumenstock, Joshua & Knight, Samsun, 2022. "(Machine) Learning What Policies Value," CEPR Discussion Papers 17364, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17364
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    Cited by:

    1. Nir Chemaya & Daniel Martin, 2023. "Perceptions and Detection of AI Use in Manuscript Preparation for Academic Journals," Papers 2311.14720, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    2. Haushofer, Johannes & Niehaus, Paul & Paramo, Carlos & Miguel, Edward & Walker, Michael W, 2022. "Targeting Impact Versus Deprivation," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt07j8n9vz, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Targeting; Welfare; Heterogeneous treatment effects;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • Z18 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Public Policy
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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