What Moves Treasury Yields?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.
Other versions of this item:
- Moench, Emanuel & Soofi-Siavash, Soroosh, 2022. "What moves treasury yields?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1016-1043.
- Soroosh Soofi-Siavash & Emanuel Moench, 2021. "What Moves Treasury Yields?," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 88, Bank of Lithuania.
References listed on IDEAS
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2005.
"The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 830-840, September.
- Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Hallin, Marc & Forni, Mario, 2002. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 3432, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2005. "The generalised dynamic factor model: one sided estimation and forecasting," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10129, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model. One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," LEM Papers Series 2003/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Forni M. & Hallin M., 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 143, Society for Computational Economics.
- Altavilla, Carlo & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele, 2017.
"Low frequency effects of macroeconomic news on government bond yields,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 31-46.
- Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2014. "Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-52, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Modugno, 2014. "Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-34, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2014. "Low Frequency Effects of Macroeconomic News on Government Bond Yields," CSEF Working Papers 372, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
- Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019.
"Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data,"
Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(3), pages 323-335, September.
- Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield curve and financial uncertainty: Evidence based on US data," CAMA Working Papers 2019-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 7697, CESifo.
- Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2019n05, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
- Efrem Castelnuovo, 2019. "Yield Curve and Financial Uncertainty: Evidence Based on US Data," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0234, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2008.
"Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 351-363, October.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2007. "Global yield curve dynamics and interactions: A dynamic Nelson-Siegel approach," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/27, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li & Vivian Z. Yue, 2007. "Global Yield Curve Dynamics and Interactions: A Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-030, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li & Vivian Z. Yue, 2007. "Global Yield Curve Dynamics and Interactions: A Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Approach," NBER Working Papers 13588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Moench, Emanuel, 2008.
"Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: A no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 26-43, September.
- Mönch, Emanuel, 2005. "Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: a no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach," Working Paper Series 544, European Central Bank.
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2014.
"No News in Business Cycles,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1168-1191, December.
- Forni, Mario & Sala, Luca & Gambetti, Luca, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 8274, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2013. "No News in Business Cycles," Working Papers 491, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," Working Papers 535, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 862.11, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2011. "No news in business cycles," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 063, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," Working Papers 383, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002.
"Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2017.
"Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 937-958, May.
- Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2011. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 774, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2015.
- Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2012. "Uncertainty shocks in a model of effective demand," Working Papers 12-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2012. "Uncertainty Shocks in a Model of Effective Demand," NBER Working Papers 18420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Susanto Basu & Brent Bundick, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks in a model of effective demand," Research Working Paper RWP 14-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Laura Coroneo & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2016.
"Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yield Curve,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 472-485, July.
- Laura Coroneo & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Modugno, 2013. "Unspanned Macroeconomic Factors in the Yields Curve," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2013-07, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Laura Coroneo & Domenico Giannone & Michele Modugno, 2014. "Unspanned macroeconomic factors in the yield curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Andr? Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2013.
"News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2612-2632, October.
- Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2010 Meeting Papers 72, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Andre Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2012. "News shocks and the slope of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2012-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- André Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cahiers de recherche 1005, CIRPEE.
- Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2016.
"FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 574-589, October.
- Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2015. "FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Working Papers 2015-12, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Gianni Amisano & Oreste Tristani, 2019.
"Uncertainty Shocks, Monetary Policy and Long-Term Interest Rates,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2019-024, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Amisano, Gianni & Tristani, Oreste, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks, monetary policy and long-term interest rates," Working Paper Series 2279, European Central Bank.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006.
"Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2002. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-34, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Francis X. Diebold & Canlin Li, 2003. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Government Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 10048, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2003. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.
- Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2006.
"Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1293-1307, September.
- Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Chapters, in: Enhancing Productivity (NBER-CEPR-TCER-Keio conference), National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2003. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," IDEI Working Papers 158, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
- Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 10548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Portier, Franck & Beaudry, Paul, 2003. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Caldara, Dario & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Gilchrist, Simon & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2016.
"The macroeconomic impact of financial and uncertainty shocks,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 185-207.
- Dario Caldara & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 22058, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dario Caldara & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2016. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1166, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2018.
"The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty,"
NBER Working Papers
25386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bianchi, Francesco & Kung, Howard & Tirskikh, Mikhail, 2019. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 13450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francesco Bianchi & Howard Kung & Mikhail Tirskikh, 2019. "The Origins and Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," 2019 Meeting Papers 245, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- George‐Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2018.
"Quantifying Confidence,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(5), pages 1689-1726, September.
- George-Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2014. "Quantifying Confidence," NBER Working Papers 20807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dellas, Harris & Collard, Fabrice & Angeletos, George-Marios, 2015. "Quantifying Confidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush & Riccardo DiCecio, 2014.
"A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative to Long-Run Restrictions with an Application to Technology Shocks,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 638-647, October.
- Riccardo DiCecio & Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush, 2010. "A flexible finite-horizon alternative to long-run restrictions with an application to technology shock," Working Papers 2005-024, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2015.
"Measuring Uncertainty,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(3), pages 1177-1216, March.
- Kyle Jurado & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2013. "Measuring Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 19456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nicholas Bloom, 2009.
"The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
- Nicholas Bloom, 2007. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2021.
"FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research,"
Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 103(1), pages 1-44, January.
- Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2020. "FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Working Papers 2020-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Michael McCracken & Serena Ng, 2020. "FRED-QD: A Quarterly Database for Macroeconomic Research," NBER Working Papers 26872, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Marco Lippi & Luca Sala, 2017.
"Noisy News in Business Cycles,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 122-152, October.
- Lippi, Marco & Forni, Mario & Sala, Luca & Gambetti, Luca, 2013. "Noisy News in Business cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 9601, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Marco Lippi & Luca Sala, 2014. "Noisy News in Business Cycles," Working Papers 531, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Marco Lippi & Luca Sala, 2014. "Noisy News in Business Cycles," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 097, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
- Luca Gambetti, 2014. "Noisy News in Business Cycles," 2014 Meeting Papers 1406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Scott Joslin & Marcel Priebsch & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2014. "Risk Premiums in Dynamic Term Structure Models with Unspanned Macro Risks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1197-1233, June.
- George-Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2020.
"Business-Cycle Anatomy,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3030-3070, October.
- George-Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2018. "Business Cycle Anatomy," NBER Working Papers 24875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George-Marios Angeletos & Fabrice Collard & Harris Dellas, 2020. "Business-Cycle Anatomy," Post-Print hal-03039252, HAL.
- Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris & Angeletos, George-Marios, 2020. "Business Cycle Anatomy," TSE Working Papers 20-1065, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
- Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2018.
"Bond Risk Premia and Gaussian Term Structure Models,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(3), pages 1413-1439, March.
- Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2014. "Bond Risk Premia and Gaussian Term Structure Models," Staff Working Papers 14-13, Bank of Canada.
- Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007.
"The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2291-2304, November.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian P. Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Burçin Kisacikoğlu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2020.
"Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially Measured News Surprises,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(12), pages 3871-3912, December.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Burçin Kısacıkoğlu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2018. "Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises," CESifo Working Paper Series 7229, CESifo.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Burçin Kısacıkoğlu & Jonathan H. Wright, 2018. "Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises," NBER Working Papers 25016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gürkaynak, Refet & Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin & Wright, Jonathan, 2018. "Missing Events in Event Studies: Identifying the Effects of Partially-Measured News Surprises," CEPR Discussion Papers 13153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005.
"Bond Risk Premia,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
- John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert B. Barsky & Susanto Basu & Keyoung Lee, 2015.
"Whither News Shocks?,"
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 225-264.
- Robert B. Barsky & Susanto Basu & Keyoung Lee, 2014. "Whither News Shocks?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, Volume 29, pages 225-264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert B. Barsky & Susanto Basu & Keyoung Lee, 2014. "Whither News Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 20666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Richard K. Crump & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2022. "On the Factor Structure of Bond Returns," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(1), pages 295-314, January.
- Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009.
"Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections,"
Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(5), pages 1319-1347, October.
- Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2007. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 008, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
- Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections," Working Papers ECARES 2008_036, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Opening the black box: structural factor models with large cross-sections," Working Paper Series 712, European Central Bank.
- Chris Woolston, 2014. "Rice," Nature, Nature, vol. 514(7524), pages 49-49, October.
- Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013.
"Pricing the term structure with linear regressions,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
- Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench, 2008. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Staff Reports 340, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2014.
"Risk Shocks,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 27-65, January.
- Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2013. "Risk Shocks," NBER Working Papers 18682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2006. "Confidence Intervals for Diffusion Index Forecasts and Inference for Factor-Augmented Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 1133-1150, July.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000.
"The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Lucrezia Reichlin & Marco Lippi, 2000. "The generalised dynamic factor model: identification and estimation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10143, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly, 2018.
"Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(1), pages 71-127.
- Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly, 2016. "Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 22045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma & Serena Ng, 2021.
"Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 369-410, October.
- Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma & Serena Ng, 2015. "Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?," NBER Working Papers 21803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013.
"Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
- Steffen Elstner & Eric Sims & Ruediger Bachmann, 2010. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," 2010 Meeting Papers 614, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," Working Papers 014, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
- Ruediger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2010. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 16143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2009.
"Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5027-5067, December.
- Sydeny C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2005. "Macro Factors in Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 11703, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012.
"Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
- Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajšek, 2011. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 17021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Samuel G Hanson & David O Lucca & Jonathan H Wright, 2021.
"Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1719-1781.
- Samuel Hanson & David O. Lucca & Jonathan H. Wright, 2017. "Rate-Amplifying Demand and the Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Rates," Staff Reports 810, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Byoungchan Lee, 2020.
"Forecast Error Variance Decompositions with Local Projections,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 921-933, October.
- Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Lee, Byoungchan, 2020. "Forecast Error Variance Decompositions with Local Projections," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8w31z6qx, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977.
"Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory,"
Working Papers
55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to estimate observable index model from Sargent-Sims(1977)," Statistical Software Components RTZ00126, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-162, April.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 2011.
"Information in (and not in) the Term Structure,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(9), pages 2895-2934.
- Greg Duffee, 2011. "Information in (and not in) the term structure," Economics Working Paper Archive 577, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Richard K. Crump & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2019. "Deconstructing the yield curve," Staff Reports 884, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench, 2018.
"Forecasting through the Rearview Mirror: Data Revisions and Bond Return Predictability,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 678-714.
- Eric Ghysels & Casidhe Horan & Emanuel Moench, 2012. "Forecasting through the rear-view mirror: data revisions and bond return predictability," Staff Reports 581, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- David Berger & Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio, 2020.
"Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(1), pages 40-76.
- David Berger & Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 23796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefano Giglio & Ian Dew-Becker & David Berger, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 403, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2010.
"The dynamic effects of monetary policy: A structural factor model approach,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 203-216, March.
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "The dynamic e ects of monetary policy: A structural factor model approach," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 026, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
- Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2008. "The Dynamic Effects of Monetary Policy: A Structural Factor Model Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 7098, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
- Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006.
"The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
- Bianchi, Francesco & Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2009. "The great moderation of the term structure of UK interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 856-871, September.
- Martin M. Andreasen, 2019. "Explaining Bond Return Predictability in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," CREATES Research Papers 2019-11, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Markus Sihvonen, 2024.
"Yield curve momentum,"
Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(3), pages 805-830.
- Sihvonen, Markus, 2021. "Yield curve momentum," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 15/2021, Bank of Finland.
- Linas Jurkšas & Rokas Kaminskas & Deimantė Vasiliauskaitė, 2024. "ECB monetary policy communication events: Do they move euro area yields?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(2), pages 596-625, April.
- Carlos J. Rincon, 2024. "Equity Market Pricing and Central Bank Interventions: A Panel Data Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(10), pages 1-24, September.
- Marco Bernardini & Antonio M. Conti, 2023. "Announcement and implementation effects of central bank asset purchases," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_015 is not listed on IDEAS
- Mauro Sayar Ferreira & Joice Marques Figueiredo, 2024. "The influence of global uncertainty and financial shocks, and sovereign risk shock on the Brazilian term structure of interest rate," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 674, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
- Sihvonen, Markus, 2021. "Yield curve momentum," Research Discussion Papers 15/2021, Bank of Finland.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Barigozzi, Matteo & Lippi, Marco & Luciani, Matteo, 2021. "Large-dimensional Dynamic Factor Models: Estimation of Impulse–Response Functions with I(1) cointegrated factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 455-482.
- Danilo Cascaldi‐Garcia & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2021.
"News and Uncertainty Shocks,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 779-811, June.
- Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2018. "News and Uncertainty Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1240, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- repec:wrk:wrkemf:12 is not listed on IDEAS
- Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2017. "Amplification effects of news shocks through uncertainty," 2017 Papers pca1251, Job Market Papers.
- Norman R. Swanson & Weiqi Xiong & Xiye Yang, 2020. "Predicting interest rates using shrinkage methods, real‐time diffusion indexes, and model combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 587-613, August.
- Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2022.
"News Shocks under Financial Frictions,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 210-243, October.
- Francesco Zanetti & Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas, 2016. "News Shocks under Financial Frictions," Economics Series Working Papers 813, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2020. "News shocks under financial frictions," CAMA Working Papers 2020-94, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Görtz, Christoph & Tsoukalas, John & Zanetti, Francesco, 2017. "News Shocks under Financial Frictions," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Christoph Gortz & John Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2021. "News Shocks under Financial Frictions," Discussion Papers 21-08, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2020. "News Shocks under Financial Frictions," CESifo Working Paper Series 8728, CESifo.
- Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2020. "News Shocks under Financial Frictions," Discussion Papers 2027, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
- Christoph Görtz & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2016. "News Shocks under Financial Frictions," Working Papers 2016_15, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
- Ramey, V.A., 2016.
"Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162,
Elsevier.
- Ramey, VA, 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5mb353t2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Valerie A. Ramey, 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," NBER Working Papers 21978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Is There A Single Shock That Drives The Majority Of Business Cycle Fluctuations?," Working Papers 1906, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
- Iseringhausen, Martin & Petrella, Ivan & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2021.
"Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle,"
Cardiff Economics Working Papers
E2021/30, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
- Martin Iseringhausen & Ivan Petrella & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2022. "Aggregate skewness and the business cycle," Working Papers 53, European Stability Mechanism.
- Iseringhausen, Martin & Petrella, Ivan & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2022. "Aggregate Skewness and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 17162, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Popp, Aaron & Zhang, Fang, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks: The role of the financial channel," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 319-349.
- Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2022. "Forecast Revisions as Instruments for News Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1341, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.
- Salzmann, Leonard, 2020. "The Impact of Uncertainty and Financial Shocks in Recessions and Booms," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224588, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2014.
"No News in Business Cycles,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1168-1191, December.
- Forni, Mario & Sala, Luca & Gambetti, Luca, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 8274, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2013. "No News in Business Cycles," Working Papers 491, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," Working Papers 383, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 862.11, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2011. "No news in business cycles," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 063, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
- Mario Forni & Luca Gambetti & Luca Sala, 2011. "No News in Business Cycles," Working Papers 535, Barcelona School of Economics.
- P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015.
"Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty,"
SIRE Discussion Papers
2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Byrne, JP & Cao, S & Korobilis, D, 2016. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 18195, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
- Joseph P. Byrne & Shuo Cao. & Dimitris Korobilis., 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," Working Papers 2015_08, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 63844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023.
"Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty,"
Working Paper series
23-01, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," BCAM Working Papers 2206, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
- Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," CAMA Working Papers 2023-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Economics Series Working Papers 999, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Papers 2302.01621, arXiv.org.
- Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 2304, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
- Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 10463, CESifo.
- Luca Gambetti & Dimitris Korobilis & John D. Tsoukalas & Francesco Zanetti, 2023. "Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty," Working Papers 2023_04, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Steffen R. Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2017.
"Dimensions Of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Common Factor Analysis,"
Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(2), pages 843-877, April.
- Steffen Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2013. "Dimensions of macroeconomic uncertainty: A common factor analysis," ifo Working Paper Series 167, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Henzel, Steffen R. & Rengel, Malte, 2017. "Dimensions of macroeconomic uncertainty: a common factor analysis," Munich Reprints in Economics 49932, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Steffen Henzel & Malte Rengel, 2014. "Dimensions of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: A Common Factor Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4991, CESifo.
- Dario Caldara & Chiara Scotti & Molin Zhong, 2021. "Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 1326, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Poncela, Pilar & Ruiz, Esther & Miranda, Karen, 2021.
"Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: This is not just another survey,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1399-1425.
- Poncela Blanco, Maria Pilar, 2020. "Factor extraction using Kalman filter and smoothing: this is not just another survey," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 30644, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de EstadÃstica.
More about this item
Keywords
Term structure of interest rates; Yield curve; News shocks; Volatility shocks; Business cycle news; Structural dynamic factor models;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-CWA-2021-05-10 (Central and Western Asia)
- NEP-FMK-2021-05-10 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MAC-2021-05-10 (Macroeconomics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15978. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.