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An Adaptive Targeted Field Experiment: Job Search Assistance for Refugees in Jordan

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  • Quinn, Simon
  • Caria, Stefano
  • Gordon, Grant
  • Kasy, Maximilian
  • Shami, Soha
  • Teytelboym, Alexander

Abstract

We introduce a novel adaptive targeted treatment assignment methodology for field experiments. Our Tempered Thompson Algorithm balances the goals of maximizing the precision of treatment effect estimates and maximizing the welfare of experimental participants. A hierarchical Bayesian model allows us to adaptively target treatments. We implement our methodology in Jordan, testing policies to help Syrian refugees and local jobseekers to find work. The immediate employment impacts of a small cash grant, information and psychological support are close to zero, but targeting raises employment by 1 percentage-point (20%). After four months, cash has a sizable effect on employment and earnings of Syrians.

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  • Quinn, Simon & Caria, Stefano & Gordon, Grant & Kasy, Maximilian & Shami, Soha & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2020. "An Adaptive Targeted Field Experiment: Job Search Assistance for Refugees in Jordan," CEPR Discussion Papers 15359, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15359
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    5. Xiaoxue Sherry Gao & Glenn W. Harrison & Rusty Tchernis, 2020. "Behavioral Welfare Economics and Risk Preferences: A Bayesian Approach," NBER Working Papers 27685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Keisuke Hirano & Jack R. Porter, 2023. "Asymptotic Representations for Sequential Decisions, Adaptive Experiments, and Batched Bandits," Papers 2302.03117, arXiv.org.
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    8. Bahety, Girija & Bauhoff, Sebastian & Patel, Dev & Potter, James, 2021. "Texts don’t nudge: An adaptive trial to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    9. Özler, Berk & Çelik, Çiğdem & Cunningham, Scott & Cuevas, P. Facundo & Parisotto, Luca, 2021. "Children on the move: Progressive redistribution of humanitarian cash transfers among refugees," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    10. Max Cytrynbaum, 2021. "Optimal Stratification of Survey Experiments," Papers 2111.08157, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    11. Samantha Horn & Sabina J. Sloman, 2022. "A Comparison of Methods for Adaptive Experimentation," Papers 2207.00683, arXiv.org.
    12. Maximilian Kasy & Alexander Teytelboym, 2023. "Matching with semi-bandits," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(1), pages 45-66.
    13. Xiaoxue Sherry Gao & Glenn W. Harrison & Rusty Tchernis, 2023. "Behavioral welfare economics and risk preferences: a Bayesian approach," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(2), pages 273-303, April.
    14. Saskia Opitz & Dirk Sliwka & Timo Vogelsang & Tom Zimmermann, 2022. "The Targeted Assignment of Incentive Schemes," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 187, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    15. Danielle Li & Lindsey R. Raymond & Peter Bergman, 2020. "Hiring as Exploration," NBER Working Papers 27736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Danutė Krapavickaitė, 2022. "Impact of Stratum Composition Changes on the Accuracy of the Estimates in a Sample Survey," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-21, March.
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    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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