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The Costs of Macroprudential Policy

Author

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  • Schularick, Moritz
  • Richter, Björn
  • Shim, Ilhyock

Abstract

Central banks increasingly rely on macroprudential measures to manage the financial cycle. However, the effects of such policies on the core objectives of monetary policy to stabilise output and inflation are largely unknown. In this paper we quantify the effects of changes in maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratios on output and inflation. We rely on a narrative identification approach based on detailed reading of policy-makers’ objectives when implementing the measures. We find that over a four year horizon, a 10 percentage point decrease in the maximum LTV ratio leads to a 1.1% reduction in output. As a rule of thumb, the impact of a 10 percentage point LTV tightening can be viewed as roughly comparable to that of a 25 basis point increase in the policy rate. However, the effects are imprecisely estimated and the effect is only present in emerging market economies. We also find that tightening LTV limits has larger economic effects than loosening them. At the same time, we show that changes in maximum LTV ratios have substantial effects on credit and house price growth. Using inverse propensity weights to rerandomise LTV actions, we show that these effects are likely causal.

Suggested Citation

  • Schularick, Moritz & Richter, Björn & Shim, Ilhyock, 2018. "The Costs of Macroprudential Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 13124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13124
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroprudential policy; Loan-to-value ratios; Local projections; Narrative approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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