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Trade and frictional unemployment in the global economy

Author

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  • Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric
  • Carrère, Céline
  • Grujovic, Anja

Abstract

We develop a multi-country, multi-sector trade model featuring risk-averse workers, labor market frictions, unemployment beneï¬ ts, and equilibrium unemployment. Trade opening leads to a reduction in unemployment when it simultaneously raises welfare and reallocates labor towards sectors with lower-than-average labor market frictions. We then estimate and calibrate the model using employment data from 31 OECD countries and worldwide trade data. Finally, we quantify the potential unemployment, real wage, and welfare effects of repealing NAFTA and raising bilateral tariffs between the US and Mexico to 20 percent. This policy would increase unemployment by 2.4 percent in the us and 48 percent in Mexico.

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  • Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric & Carrère, Céline & Grujovic, Anja, 2019. "Trade and frictional unemployment in the global economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 10692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10692
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric & Olarreaga, Marcelo & Carrère, Céline & Fugazza, Marco, 2016. "On the heterogeneous effect of trade on unemployment," CEPR Discussion Papers 11540, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & João Paulo Pessoa & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman, 2023. "Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1109-1171.
    3. Antràs, Pol & de Gortari, Alonso & Itskhoki, Oleg, 2017. "Globalization, inequality and welfare," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 387-412.
    4. Kohl, Miriam & Richter, Philipp M., 2023. "Unilateral tax policy in the open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Olarreaga, Marcelo & Ugarte, Cristian, 2020. "Can export promotion reduce unemployment?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Oliver Krebs, 2018. "Shocking Germany – A spatial analysis of German regional labor markets," Working Papers 183, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    7. Gabriel Felbermayr, 2016. "Economic Analysis of TTIP," ifo Working Paper Series 215, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Povilas Lastauskas & Julius Stakėnas, 2020. "Labour market institutions in open economy: Sectoral reallocations, aggregate adjustments, and spillovers," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 814-845, August.
    9. Baier, Scott L. & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2019. "On the widely differing effects of free trade agreements: Lessons from twenty years of trade integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 206-226.
    10. Eddy Bekkers & Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, 2018. "Non-tariff Measure Estimations in Different Impact Assessments," RSCAS Working Papers 2018/40, European University Institute.
    11. Aichele Rahel & Felbermayr Gabriel J. & Heiland Inga, 2016. "TTIP and Intra-European Trade: Boon or Bane?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(6), pages 639-664, December.
    12. Gyasi, Genevieve, 2020. "The Impact of Trade Agreement Policy on Employment," MPRA Paper 101307, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Gabriel Felbermayr & Gabriel J. Felbermayr, 2017. "Ricardo und die neue quantitative Außenhandelstheorie," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(18), pages 23-24, September.
    14. Carrère, Céline & Fugazza, Marco & Olarreaga, Marcelo & Robert-Nicoud, Frédéric, 2020. "Comparative advantage and equilibrium unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    15. Simon Galle & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Moises Yi, 2023. "Slicing the Pie: Quantifying the Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(1), pages 331-375.
    16. Rodolfo G. Campos & Jacopo Timini, 2022. "Unequal trade, unequal gains: the heterogeneous impact of MERCOSUR," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(49), pages 5655-5669, October.
    17. Vandenberg, Paul, 2017. "Can Trade Help Achieve the Employment Targets of the Sustainable Development Goals?," ADBI Working Papers 650, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    18. Nong, Huifu, 2021. "Have cross-category spillovers of economic policy uncertainty changed during the US–China trade war?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Jovanović, Miroslav, 2016. "Emerging Mega International Blocs: Limits and Prospects," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(4), pages 271-316.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor market frictions; Unemployment; Trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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