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Robust Optimization of Currency Portfolios

Author

Listed:
  • Raquel J. Fonseca
  • Steve Zymler
  • Wolfram Wiesemann
  • Berc Rustem

Abstract

We study a currency investment strategy, where we maximize the return on a portfolio of foreign currencies relative to any appreciation of the corresponding foreign exchange rates. Given the uncertainty in the estimation of the future currency values, we employ robust optimization techniques to maximize the return on the portfolio for the worst-case foreign exchange rate scenario. Currency portfolios differ from stock only portfolios in that a triangular relationship exists among foreign exchange rates to avoid arbitrage. Although the inclusion of such a constraint in the model would lead to a nonconvex problem, we show that by choosing appropriate uncertainty sets for the exchange and the cross exchange rates, we obtain a convex model that can be solved efficiently. Alongside robust optimization, an additional guarantee is explored by investing in currency options to cover the eventuality that foreign exchange rates materialize outside the specified uncertainty sets. We present numerical results that show the relationship between the size of the uncertainty sets and the distribution of the investment among currencies and options, and the overall performance of the model in a series of backtesting experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Raquel J. Fonseca & Steve Zymler & Wolfram Wiesemann & Berc Rustem, 2009. "Robust Optimization of Currency Portfolios," Working Papers 012, COMISEF.
    • Handle: RePEc:com:wpaper:012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabrel, Virginie & Murat, Cécile & Thiele, Aurélie, 2014. "Recent advances in robust optimization: An overview," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 235(3), pages 471-483.
    2. Raquel Fonseca & Wolfram Wiesemann & Berç Rustem, 2012. "Robust international portfolio management," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 31-62, February.
    3. Jang Ho Kim & Woo Chang Kim & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2018. "Recent advancements in robust optimization for investment management," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 183-198, July.
    4. Nonthachote Chatsanga & Andrew J. Parkes, 2016. "International Portfolio Optimisation with Integrated Currency Overlay Costs and Constraints," Papers 1611.01463, arXiv.org.
    5. Adrian Gepp & Geoff Harris & Bruce Vanstone, 2020. "Financial applications of semidefinite programming: a review and call for interdisciplinary research," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3527-3555, December.

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    Keywords

    robust optimization; portfolio optimization; currency hedging; second-order cone programming;
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