IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_5237.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

International Reserves Before and After the Global Crisis: Is There No End to Hoarding?

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Yin-Wong Cheung
  • Hiro Ito

Abstract

We evaluate the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC) and recent structural changes in the patterns of hoarding international reserves (IR). We confirm that the determinants of IR hoarding evolve with developments in the global economy. During the pre-GFC period of 1999-2006, gross saving is associated with higher IR in developing and emerging markets. The negative impact of outward direct investment on IR accumulation is consistent with the recent trend of diverting international assets from the international reserve account into tangible foreign assets; the “Joneses’ effect” lends support to the regional rivalry in hoarding IR as a motivation; and commodity price volatility induces precautionary buffer hoarding. During the 2007–2009 GFC period, previously significant variables become insignificant or display the opposite effect, probably reflecting the frantic market conditions driven by financial instability. Nevertheless, the propensity to import and gross saving continue to display strong and even larger positive effects on IR holding. The results from the 2010–2012 post-GFC period are dominated by factors that had been mostly overlooked in earlier decades. While the negative effect of swap agreements and the positive effect of gross saving on IR holdings are in line with our expectations, we find a change in the link between outward direct investment and IR in the pre- and post-crisis period. The macro-prudential policy tends to complement IR accumulation. Developed countries display different demand behaviors for IRs. Our predictive exercise affirms that an emerging market economy with insufficient IR holdings in 2012 tends to experience exchange rate depreciation against the U.S. dollar when many emerging markets were adjusted to the news of tapering quantitative easing in 2013.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Yin-Wong Cheung & Hiro Ito, 2015. "International Reserves Before and After the Global Crisis: Is There No End to Hoarding?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5237, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5237
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp5237.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2010. "Resolution of Banking Crises: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly," IMF Working Papers 2010/146, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ito, Hiro, 2015. "International reserves before and after the global crisis: Is there no end to hoarding?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-126.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur, 2013. "Why do emerging markets liberalize capital outflow controls? Fiscal versus net capital flow concerns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-64.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    6. Bussière, Matthieu & Cheng, Gong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Lisack, Noëmie, 2015. "For a few dollars more: Reserves and growth in times of crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 127-145.
    7. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    8. repec:bla:econom:v:41:y:1974:i:161:p:14-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2010. "The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 615-641, June.
    10. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long‐run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 593-611, May.
    11. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    12. Jonathan David Ostry & Atish R. Ghosh & Karl F Habermeier & Marcos d Chamon & Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt, 2010. "Capital Inflows; The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/04, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2014. "Living with the trilemma constraint: Relative trilemma policy divergence, crises, and output losses for developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 28-51.
    14. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2008/224, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Natalia Ramírez Bustamante & Ana Maria Tribin Uribe & Carmiña O. Vargas, 2015. "Maternity and Labor Markets: Impact of Legislation in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 870, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Philip Lane & Dominic Burke, 2001. "The Empirics of Foreign Reserves," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 423-434, October.
    18. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Commodity Terms of Trade: The History of Booms and Busts," IMF Working Papers 2009/205, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Yin‐Wong Cheung & Xingwang Qian, 2009. "Hoarding of International Reserves: Mrs Machlup's Wardrobe and the Joneses," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 824-843, September.
    20. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Financial Instability, Reserves, and Central Bank Swap Lines in the Panic of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 480-486, May.
    21. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
    22. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Papers 14533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy, 2003. "The high demand for international reserves in the Far East: What is going on?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 370-400, September.
    24. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 2004. "International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 569-591, July.
    25. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    26. Feldstein, Martin, 1999. "A Self-Help Guide for Emerging Markets," Scholarly Articles 2961700, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    27. Jonathan D. Ostry, 2012. "Managing Capital Flows: What Tools to Use?," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 29(01), pages 82-88, June.
    28. Lizondo, JoseSaul & Mathieson, Donald J., 1987. "The stability of the demand for international reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 251-282, September.
    29. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1988. "Oil price shocks and stability of the demand for international reserves," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 633-641.
    30. Aizenman, Joshua & Lee, Yeonho & Rhee, Youngseop, 2007. "International reserves management and capital mobility in a volatile world: Policy considerations and a case study of Korea," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15, March.
    31. Calvo, Guillermo A., 2006. "Monetary Policy Challenges in Emerging Markets: Sudden Stop, Liability Dollarization, and Lender of Last Resort," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1947, Inter-American Development Bank.
    32. Wong, Clement Yuk-pang & Cheung, Yin-Wong, 2008. "Are All Measures of International Reserves Created Equal? An Empirical Comparison of International Reserve Ratios," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-61.
    33. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    34. Frenkel, Jacob A & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1981. "Optimal International Reserves: A Stochastic Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(362), pages 507-514, June.
    35. anonymous, 1967. "Private demand weakens," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 49(Jan), pages 2-4.
    36. Cheng Hoon Lim & Mr. Ivo Krznar & Mr. Fabian Lipinsky & Mr. Akira Otani & Mr. Xiaoyong Wu, 2013. "The Macroprudential Framework: Policy Responsiveness and Institutional Arrangements," IMF Working Papers 2013/166, International Monetary Fund.
    37. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    38. Giuseppe De Luca & Jan R. Magnus, 2011. "Bayesian model averaging and weighted-average least squares: Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 11(4), pages 518-544, December.
    39. Mr. Marcos d Chamon & Miss Mahvash S Qureshi & Dennis B. S. Reinhardt & Mr. Atish R. Ghosh & Mr. Karl F Habermeier & Mr. Jonathan David Ostry, 2010. "Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/004, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Michael Dooley & David Folkerts‐Landau & Peter Garber, 2009. "Bretton Woods Ii Still Defines The International Monetary System," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 297-311, August.
    41. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
    42. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2011. "Accumulation of reserves and keeping up with the Joneses: The case of LATAM economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 19-31, January.
    43. repec:bla:scandj:v:98:y:1996:i:4:p:463-84 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Molina, Danielken & Roa, Monica, 2014. "The Effect of Credit on the Export Performance of Colombian Exporters," MPRA Paper 56137, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    45. T. J. Courchene & G. M. Youssef, 1967. "The Demand for International Reserves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 404-404.
    46. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
    47. Mr. Robert P Flood & Ms. Nancy P. Marion, 2002. "Holding International Reserves in an Era of High Capital Mobility," IMF Working Papers 2002/062, International Monetary Fund.
    48. Frenkel, Jacob A., 1980. "International reserves under pegged exchange rates and managed float : Corrections and extensions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 295-302, April.
    49. Ostry, Jonathan D., 2012. "Managing Capital Flows: What Tools to Use?," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 29(1), pages 83-89.
    50. Yin-wong Cheung & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Hoarding of International Reserves: A Comparison of the Asian and Latin American Experiences," Working Papers 072008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    51. H. Robert Heller, 1968. "The Transactions Demand for International Means of Payments," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(1), pages 141-141.
    52. Montgomery, Jacob M. & Nyhan, Brendan, 2010. "Bayesian Model Averaging: Theoretical Developments and Practical Applications," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 245-270, April.
    53. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    54. Nouriel Roubini & Jeffrey Sachs, 1989. "Government Spending and Budget Deficits in the Industrial Economies," NBER Working Papers 2919, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    55. Kelly, Michael G, 1970. "The Demand for International Reserves," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(4), pages 655-667, September.
    56. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Nancy Marion, 2014. "China’s Growth, Stability, and Use of International Reserves," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 407-428, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Hiro Ito, 2009. "A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis of International Reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 447-481.
    2. Yin-wong Cheung & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Hoarding of International Reserves: A Comparison of the Asian and Latin American Experiences," Working Papers 072008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Ito, Hiro, 2012. "Trilemma policy convergence patterns and output volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 269-285.
    4. Dongwon Lee, 2023. "International cooperation in foreign reserve policies in the presence of competitive hoarding," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 389-412, May.
    5. Aizenman, Joshua, 2019. "A modern reincarnation of Mundell-Fleming's trilemma," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 444-454.
    6. Joshua Aizenman & Brian Pinto, 2013. "Managing Financial Integration and Capital Mobility—Policy Lessons from the Past Two Decades," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 636-653, September.
    7. Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "International Reserves in Emerging Market Countries: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 1-80.
    8. Mendoza, Ronald U., 2010. "Was the Asian crisis a wake-up call?: Foreign reserves as self-protection," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-19, February.
    9. Joshua Aizenman & Hiro Ito, 2016. "East Asian Economies and Financial Globalization In the Post-Crisis World," NBER Working Papers 22268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    11. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "The accumulation of foreign exchange by central banks: Fear of capital mobility?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 409-427.
    12. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2011. "Accumulation of reserves and keeping up with the Joneses: The case of LATAM economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 19-31, January.
    13. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "How central banks prepare for financial crises – An empirical analysis of the effects of crises and globalisation on international reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-234.
    14. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2011. "Surfing the waves of globalization: Asia and financial globalization in the context of the trilemma," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 290-320, September.
    15. Jäger, Kai, 2016. "The Role of Regime Type in the Political Economy of Foreign Reserve Accumulation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 79-96.
    16. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2008. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time," NBER Working Papers 14533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    18. Steiner, Andreas, 2017. "Central banks and macroeconomic policy choices: Relaxing the trilemma," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 283-299.
    19. Hur, Sewon & Kondo, Illenin O., 2016. "A theory of rollover risk, sudden stops, and foreign reserves," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 44-63.
    20. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    global financial crisis; gross saving; swap agreements; macro-prudential policies; sovereign wealth funds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_5237. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.