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The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality

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  • Balazs Egert
  • Douglas Sutherland

Abstract

This paper takes a fresh look at the nature of financial and real business cycles in OECD countries using annual data series and shorter quarterly and monthly economic indicators. It first analyses the main characteristics of the cycle, including the length, amplitude, asymmetry and changes of these parameters during expansions and contractions. It then studies the degree of economic and financial cycle synchronisation between OECD countries but also of economic and financial variables within a given country, and gauges the extent to which cycle synchronisation changed over time. Finally, the paper provides some new evidence on the drivers of the great moderation and analyses the banking sector’s pro-cyclicality by using aggregate and bank-level data. The main findings show that the amplitude of the real business cycle was becoming smaller during the great moderation, but asset price cycles were becoming more volatile. In part this was linked to developments in the banking sector which tended to accentuate pro-cyclical behaviour.

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  • Balazs Egert & Douglas Sutherland, 2012. "The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro-Cyclicality," CESifo Working Paper Series 3824, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3824
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    Cited by:

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    3. Brigitte Granville & Sana Hussain, 2017. "Eurozone cycles: An analysis of phase synchronization," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 83-114, April.
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    8. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview of the Literature and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1006, OECD Publishing.
    9. Malovaná Simona & Tesařová Žaneta, 2022. "Banks’ Credit Losses and Provisioning over the Business Cycle: Implications for IFRS," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 22(1), pages 53-74, March.
    10. Nicola CUCARI, 2016. "Donatello Strangio & Giuseppe Sancetta (Eds.), Italy in a European Context: Research in Business, Economics, and the Environment," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 347-352, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real business cycles; financial cycles; great moderation; banking system; financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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