IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_10131.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Pay and Unemployment Determinants of Migration Flows in the European Union

Author

Listed:
  • António Afonso
  • José Alves
  • Krzysztof Beck

Abstract

We analyze the migration drivers within the European Union countries. For a set of 23 EU countries over the 1995-2019 period, we use Bayesian Model Averaging and quantile regression to assess notably the relevance of unemployment and earnings. We find that the existence of a common border increases the number of net migrants by 172 people per 1000 inhabitants. In addition, 1000 PPP Euro increase in the difference in net annual salaries increases net migration by approximately 50 and 42 people per 1000 inhabitants in a working age of both countries under uniform and binomial-beta model prior, respectively. Moreover, one percentage point increase in the difference in the unemployment rate is associated with an increase in net immigration by approximately 6 and 3 persons by 1000 inhabitants in both countries. These results are also corroborated with the quantile regression results. Hence, human capital inside the EU is moving in search of higher cross-country earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & José Alves & Krzysztof Beck, 2022. "Pay and Unemployment Determinants of Migration Flows in the European Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 10131, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10131
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10131.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    2. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
    3. Nicole B. Simpson, 2022. "Demographic and economic determinants of migration," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 373-373, July.
    4. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 1996. "Channels of Interstate Risk Sharing: United States 1963–1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(4), pages 1081-1110.
    5. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2008. "EMU enlargement, stabilization costs and insurance mechanisms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 169-187, March.
    6. Roel Jennissen, 2003. "Economic Determinants of Net International Migration in Western Europe," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 171-198, June.
    7. Jennifer Jager & Kurt Hafner, 2013. "The optimum currency area theory and the EMU," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 48(5), pages 315-322, September.
    8. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
    9. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    10. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
    11. Esposito, Piero & Collignon, Stefan & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2020. "The effect of immigration on unemployment in Europe: Does the core-periphery dualism matter?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 249-258.
    12. Alícia Adserà & Mariola Pytliková, 2015. "The Role of Language in Shaping International Migration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(586), pages 49-81, August.
    13. David Dorn & Josef Zweimüller, 2021. "Migration and Labor Market Integration in Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 49-76, Spring.
    14. Michael Landesmann & Sandra M. Leitner & Isilda Mara, 2015. "Intra-EU Mobility and Push and Pull Factors in EU Labour Markets: Estimating a Panel VAR Model," wiiw Working Papers 120, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    15. Frederick Solt, 2020. "Measuring Income Inequality Across Countries and Over Time: The Standardized World Income Inequality Database," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 101(3), pages 1183-1199, May.
    16. Krzysztof Beck, 2021. "Migration and business cycles: testing the OCA theory predictions in the European union," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(13), pages 1087-1091, July.
    17. Wido Geis & Silke Uebelmesser & Martin Werding, 2013. "How do Migrants Choose Their Destination Country? An Analysis of Institutional Determinants," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 825-840, November.
    18. Pedersen, Peder J. & Pytlikova, Mariola & Smith, Nina, 2008. "Selection and network effects--Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1160-1186, October.
    19. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    20. Hugo Gallardo-Sejas & Salvador-Gil Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & Jose Martinez-Serrano, 2006. "Determinants of European immigration: a cross-country analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 769-773.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Beck, Krzysztof & Yersh, Valeryia, 2024. "Economic integration and consumption risk sharing: A comparison of Eurozone and OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 784-803.
    2. Bruns, Stephan B. & Ioannidis, John P.A., 2020. "Determinants of economic growth: Different time different answer?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Kotschy, Rainer & Prettner, Klaus & Schünemann, Johannes, 2024. "Health and economic growth: Reconciling the micro and macro evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    4. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Wendt, Katharina, 2019. "On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 253-274.
    5. Czyżewski, Daniel, 2021. "The relationship between the international trade and economic growth accounting for model uncertainty and reverse causality," MPRA Paper 108405, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Naghavi, Alireza & Strozzi, Chiara, 2015. "Intellectual property rights, diasporas, and domestic innovation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 150-161.
    7. Claudia Cigagna & Giovanni Sulis, 2015. "On the potential interaction between labour market institutions and immigration policies," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 36(4), pages 441-468, July.
    8. Krzysztof Beck & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2023. "Labor mobility and business cycle synchronization in Southern Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 159-179, February.
    9. Beck, Krzysztof, 2021. "Why business cycles diverge? Structural evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    10. Ariu, Andrea & Docquier, Frédéric & Squicciarini, Mara P., 2016. "Governance quality and net migration flows," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 238-248.
    11. Dmytro Vikhrov, 2017. "Immigration policy index," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 25(1), pages 3-46, January.
    12. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2010. "Natural Disasters and Human Capital Accumulation," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 24(2), pages 280-302, July.
    13. Serdar Öztürk & Buket Altınöz, 2022. "An Investigation of the Impact of Health Expenditures on International Migration as a Pull Factor in OECD Countries Using a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) Approach," Journal of Economic Policy Researches, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 39-52, January.
    14. Michael S. Delgado & Daniel J. Henderson & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2014. "Does Education Matter for Economic Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 334-359, June.
    15. León-González, Roberto & Montolio, Daniel, 2015. "Endogeneity and panel data in growth regressions: A Bayesian model averaging approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 23-39.
    16. Joan Llull, 2016. "Understanding international migration: evidence from a new dataset of bilateral stocks (1960–2000)," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 221-255, June.
    17. Simon Winter, 2020. "“It’s the Economy, Stupid!”: On the Relative Impact of Political and Economic Determinants on Migration," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 39(2), pages 207-252, April.
    18. Ruba Abdullah Aljarallah, 2020. "The Economic Impacts of Natural Resource Dependency in Gulf Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 36-52.
    19. Marcén, Miriam & Bellido, Héctor, 2015. "Spaniards in the wider World," MPRA Paper 63966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    migration flows; earnings; unemployment; Bayesian Model Averaging; quantile regression; EU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.