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Global Imbalances: Is Germany the new China? A Skeptical View

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  • Aizenman, Joshua
  • Sengupta, Rajeswari

Abstract

In this paper we evaluate the current account patterns of China and Germany. Wepoint out that China's current account surplus as a share of global GDP in recent yearsresembles that of Germany’s. Yet, an important difference is that the Euro block’scurrent account inclusive of Germany has overall been balanced, whereas emergingAsia's current account inclusive of China has mostly been characterized by sizablesurpluses. We further find that both China and Germany's current account surplusesseem to be accounted for by common factors. However we have reasons to doubt thelong run viability of these current account trends in future decades. Demographictransitions in China and Germany are projected to reduce their surpluses, and thiseffect is stronger for Germany. We also discuss plausible reasons to doubt the extentto which the Euro block will move towards significant surplus in the coming years.

Suggested Citation

  • Aizenman, Joshua & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2010. "Global Imbalances: Is Germany the new China? A Skeptical View," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3zx245jn, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt3zx245jn
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    Cited by:

    1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Sven Steinkamp & Frank Westermann, 2020. "A Tale of Two Surplus Countries: China and Germany," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 131-158, February.
    2. Gu, Xinhua & Tam, Pui Sun & Lei, Chun Kwok, 2021. "The effects of inequality in the 1997–98 Asian crisis and the 2008–09 global tsunami: The case of five Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    3. Carlos A. Carrasco & Patricia Peinado, 2015. "On the Origin of European Imbalances in the Context of European Integration," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(2), pages 177-191, June.
    4. Hoffmann, Mathias, 2013. "What drives China's current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 856-883.
    5. Juan Marchetti & Michele Ruta & Robert Teh, 2012. "Trade Imbalances and Multilateral Trade Cooperation," CESifo Working Paper Series 4050, CESifo.
    6. Guangfeng Zhang & Ronald MacDonald, 2014. "Real Exchange Rates, the Trade Balance and Net Foreign Assets: Long-Run Relationships and Measures of Misalignment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 635-653, September.
    7. Carlos A. Carrasco & Felipe Serrano, 2014. "Global and European Imbalances:A critical review," Working papers wpaper42, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    8. Robert N. McCauley & Guonan Ma, 2013. "Global and Euro Imbalances: China and Germany," SUERF 50th Anniversary Volume Chapters, in: Morten Balling & Ernest Gnan (ed.), 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, chapter 2, pages 43-72, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social and Behavioral Sciences; current accounts; demographic transitions; global imbalances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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