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Liquidity and tail-risk interdependencies in the euro area sovereign bond market

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  • Clancy, Daragh

    (European Stability Mechanism)

  • Dunne, Peter G.

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Filiani, Pasquale

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

The likelihood of severe contractions in an asset’s liquidity can feed back to the ex-ante risks faced by the individual providers of such liquidity. These self-reinforcing effects can spread to other assets through informational externalities and hedging relations. We explore whether such interdependencies play a role in amplifying tensions in European sovereign bond markets and are a source of cross-market spillovers. Using highfrequency data from the inter-dealer market, we find significant own- and cross-market effects that amplify liquidity contractions in the Italian and Spanish bond markets during times of heightened risk. The German Bund’s safe-haven status exacerbates these amplification effects. We provide evidence of a post-crisis dampening of cross-market effects following crisisera changes to euro area policies and institutional architecture. We identify a structural break in Italy’s cross-market conditional correlation during rising political tensions in 2018, which significantly reduced liquidity. Overall, our findings demonstrate potential for the provision of liquidity across sovereign markets to be vulnerable to sudden fractures, with possible implications for euro area economic and financial stability.

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  • Clancy, Daragh & Dunne, Peter G. & Filiani, Pasquale, 2019. "Liquidity and tail-risk interdependencies in the euro area sovereign bond market," Research Technical Papers 11/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:11/rt/19
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    Cited by:

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    2. Clancy, Daragh & Gabriele, Carmine & Žigraiová, Diana, 2022. "Sovereign bond market spillovers from crisis-time developments in Greece," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Linas Jurksas & Deimante Teresiene & Rasa Kanapickiene, 2021. "Liquidity Spill-Overs in Sovereign Bond Market: An Intra-Day Study of Trade Shocks in Calm and Stressful Market Conditions," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity; Tail risks; Feedback loops; Spillovers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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