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Understanding Asian equity flows, market returns and exchange rates

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  • Chayawadee Chai-Anant
  • Corinna Ho

Abstract

This paper examines from various angles foreign investors' daily transactions in six emerging Asian equity markets and their relationship with local market returns and exchange rate changes over the period 1999-2006. Confirming much of the literature, we find that equity market returns matter for net equity purchases, and vice versa. In addition, we find that while currency returns tend to show little influence over foreign investors' demand for Asian equities, net equity purchases do have some explanatory power over near-term exchange rate changes. Moreover, we find that foreign investors do quite often move in or out of multiple Asian markets simultaneously - but more so on the way in than on the way out. Nonetheless, during specific events of heightened market volatility, we observe some interesting deviations from the full-sample average relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • Chayawadee Chai-Anant & Corinna Ho, 2008. "Understanding Asian equity flows, market returns and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 245, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:245
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    Cited by:

    1. Samarakoon, Lalith P., 2009. "The relation between trades of domestic and foreign investors and stock returns in Sri Lanka," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 850-861, December.
    2. Grenville, Stephen, 2012. "Rethinking Capital Flows for Emerging East Asia," ADBI Working Papers 362, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    3. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2009. "International portfolio rebalancing and exchange rate fluctuations in Thailand," BIS Working Papers 287, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Mr. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mr. Subhanij Tientip & Mr. Mico Loretan, 2012. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and International Portfolio Rebalancing in Thailand," IMF Working Papers 2012/214, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Haakon Kavli & Nicola Viegi, 2017. "Are Determinants of Portfolio Flows Always the Same? - South African Results from a Time Varying Parameter Var Model," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 3-27, March.
    6. Nasha Ananchotikul & Chayawadee Chai-anant & Krist Dacharux & Manop Udomkerdmongkol, 2009. "Thailand’s Medium-term Macroeconomic Policies: Major Challenges and Appropriate Responses," Working Papers 2009-05, Monetary Policy Group, Bank of Thailand.
    7. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.
    8. Dilip K. Das, 2014. "Growth, integration and trends in equity markets in Asia," Asia Pacific Business Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 286-301, April.
    9. Jotikasthira, Chotibhak & Lundblad, Christian & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "How do foreign investors impact domestic economic activity? Evidence from India and China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 89-110.
    10. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2010. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 186-210, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Jakree Koosakul, 2016. "Daily Movements in the Thai Yield Curve: Fundamental and Non-Fundamental Drivers," PIER Discussion Papers 30, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Kavli, Haakon & Viegi, Nicola, 2015. "Portfolio Flows in a two-country RBC model with financial intermediaries," MPRA Paper 66875, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2015.
    13. Jakree Koosakul, 2016. "Daily Movements in the Thai Yield Curve: Fundamental and Non-Fundamental Drivers," PIER Discussion Papers 30., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jun 2016.
    14. Andrew Filardo & Stephen Grenville, 2012. "Central bank balance sheets and foreign exchange rate regimes: understanding the nexus in Asia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 76-110, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. repec:idn:journl:v:17:y:2015:i:4:p:1-30 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. McCauley, Robert, 2013. "Risk-On/Risk-Off, Capital Flows, Leverage and Safe Assets," Journal of Financial Perspectives, EY Global FS Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 145-154.
    17. Gyntelberg, Jacob & Loretan, Mico & Subhanij, Tientip, 2018. "Private information, capital flows, and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 40-55.
    18. Yilmaz Akyuz, 2015. "The Global Economic Crisis and Asian Developing Countries: Impact, Policy Response and Medium Term Prospects," Working Papers id:7062, eSocialSciences.
    19. Ma, Guonan & McCauley, Robert N., 2011. "The evolving renminbi regime and implications for Asian currency stability," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-38, March.
    20. Robert N. McCauley, 2010. "Managing Recent Hot Money Inflows in Asia," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Mario B. Lamberte (ed.), Managing Capital Flows, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Andrew Filardo & Jason George & Mico Loretan & Guonan Ma & Anella Munro & Ilhyock Shim & Philip Wooldridge & James Yetman & Haibin Zhu, 2010. "The international financial crisis: timeline, impact and policy responses in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 21-82, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Boubekeur Baba & Güven Sevil, 2021. "Bayesian analysis of time-varying interactions between stock returns and foreign equity flows," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, December.
    23. Gyntelberg, Jacob & Loretan, Mico & Subhanij, Tientip & Chan, Eric, 2014. "Exchange rate fluctuations and international portfolio rebalancing," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 34-44.
    24. Bank for International Settlements, 2009. "Capital flows and emerging market economies," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 33, december.

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    Keywords

    Asian equity markets; foreign investor; market returns; currency returns; exchange rate;
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