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The mechanics of devaluations and the output response in a DSGE model: how relevant is the balance sheet effect?

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  • Camilo E Tovar

Abstract

The relative importance of different mechanisms through which devaluations affect output are analyzed using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy with imperfect competition and nominal rigidities. Devaluations are defined as an increase in the central bank's nominal exchange rate target, which induces a decrease in the nominal interest rate. Three main mechanisms through which devaluations affect output are considered: The traditional expansionary expenditure-switching effect, the balance sheet effect which allows the possibility of contractionary effects when firms' debt are dollar-denominated, and a monetary channel associated with an interest rule that targets the nominal exchange rate. The model is calibrated and simulated under alternative scenarios of exchange rate regimes and shocks. Devaluations are found to be expansionary despite the contractionary balance sheet effect. In response to adverse external shocks the economy's output response improves with a devaluation the less flexible the exchange rate regime is.

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  • Camilo E Tovar, 2005. "The mechanics of devaluations and the output response in a DSGE model: how relevant is the balance sheet effect?," BIS Working Papers 192, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:192
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    Cited by:

    1. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.
    2. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    3. Bussière, Matthieu & Saxena, Sweta C. & Tovar, Camilo E., 2012. "Chronicle of currency collapses: Re examining the effects on output," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 680-708.
    4. Duncan, Roberto, 2014. "Institutional quality, the cyclicality of monetary policy and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 113-155.
    5. Camilo E Tovar, 2006. "Devaluations, output and the balance sheet effect: a structural econometric analysis," BIS Working Papers 215, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2013. "An Estimated Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Partial Dollarization: A Bayesian Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 217-265, April.
    8. Torrejón-Flores, Fernando & García-Solanes, José, 2015. "Exchange-rate variations and the rate of inflation in emerging economies," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
    9. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    10. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Peter J. Montiel, 2007. "Credit Market Imperfections and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Part II: Flexible Exchange Rates," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 87, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    11. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-31.
    12. Mr. Akito Matsumoto, 2011. "Global Liquidity: Availability of Funds for Safe and Risky Assets," IMF Working Papers 2011/136, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Antón Sarabia Arturo, 2007. "The Financial Accelerator from a Business Cycle Accounting Perspective," Working Papers 2007-06, Banco de México.
    14. Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia & Aliona Cebotari & Kevin Greenidge & Geoffrey N. Keim, 2015. "External Devaluations: Are Small States Different?," IMF Working Papers 2015/240, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Yongkul Won, 2008. "Exchange Rate Changes and Income Distribution," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 24, pages 73-104.
    16. García-Solanes, José & Torrejón-Flores, Fernando, 2010. "Devaluation and pass-through in indebted and risky economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 36-45, January.
    17. Gondo, Rocio & Orrego, Fabrizio, 2011. "Dedollarization and financial robustness," Working Papers 2011-022, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    devaluations; balance sheet effect; interest rate rule; exchange rate target; new open economy macroeconomics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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