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Diffusion of crime control benefits: Forced eradication and coca crops in Colombia

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  • Eleonora Dávalos
  • Leonardo Fabio Morales

Abstract

One explanation for the increasing number of hectares with coca cultivation is that eradication strategies displace coca crops but fail to completely clear affected areas. In the drug policy literature, that dynamic shifting is commonly known as the balloon effect. This study integrates georeferenced agricultural data through spatially explicit econometric models to test the hypothesis that forced eradication displace coca crops. Using annual data for 1,116 contiguous municipalities in Colombia between 2001 and 2015, we estimate a spatial Durbin model with municipal and time fixed effects. Our results suggest that, on average, aerial fumigation in a municipality diffuses the benefits of this crime control strategy to neighboring municipalities. **** RESUMEN: Una posible razón del crecimiento del número de hectáreas de coca en Colombia es que las estrategias de erradicación desplazan los cultivos de coca, pero no logran despejar por completo las áreas afectadas. En la literatura sobre políticas de drogas, ese cambio dinámico se conoce comúnmente como el efecto globo. Este estudio integra datos agrícolas georreferenciados a través de modelos econométricos espaciales para evaluar la hipótesis de que la erradicación forzada desplaza los cultivos de coca. Utilizando datos anuales de 1.116 municipios contiguos en Colombia, estimamos un modelo espacial Durbin. Nuestros resultados sugieren que, en promedio, la fumigación aérea en un municipio difunde los beneficios de esta estrategia de control del crimen a los municipios vecinos.

Suggested Citation

  • Eleonora Dávalos & Leonardo Fabio Morales, 2022. "Diffusion of crime control benefits: Forced eradication and coca crops in Colombia," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 314, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:region:314
    DOI: 10.32468/dtseru.314
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Spatial dependence; Spatial Durbin model; Drug policy; Spillover; Dependencia espacial; Modelo espacial Durbin; Erradicación; Políticas de drogas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns

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