IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/22-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Financial Origins of Non-fundamental Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Sushant Acharya
  • Keshav Dogra
  • Sanjay Singh

Abstract

We formalize the idea that the financial sector can be a source of non-fundamental risk. Households’ desire to hedge against price volatility can generate price volatility in equilibrium, even absent fundamental risk. Fearing that asset prices may fall, risk-averse households demand safe assets from leveraged intermediaries, whose issuance of safe assets exposes the economy to self-fulfilling fire sales. Policy can eliminate non-fundamental risk by (i) increasing the supply of publicly backed safe assets, through issuing government debt or bailing out intermediaries, or (ii) reducing the demand for safe assets, through social insurance or by acting as a market maker of last resort.

Suggested Citation

  • Sushant Acharya & Keshav Dogra & Sanjay Singh, 2022. "The Financial Origins of Non-fundamental Risk," Staff Working Papers 22-4, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:22-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/swp2022-4.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    2. Jeremy C. Stein, 2012. "Monetary Policy as Financial Stability Regulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(1), pages 57-95.
    3. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1992. "Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1343-1366, September.
    4. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1989. "Portfolio Insurance and Financial Market Equilibrium," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(4), pages 455-472, October.
    5. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    6. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch, and Systemic Bailouts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 60-93, February.
    7. Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990. "Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December.
    8. Zhiguo He & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2013. "Intermediary Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 732-770, April.
    9. Bowman, David & Faust, Jon, 1997. "Options, Sunspots, and the Creation of Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 957-975, October.
    10. Luigi Bocola & Guido Lorenzoni, 2020. "Financial Crises, Dollarization, and Lending of Last Resort in Open Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2524-2557, August.
    11. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    12. Eduardo Dávila & Anton Korinek, 2018. "Pecuniary Externalities in Economies with Financial Frictions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(1), pages 352-395.
    13. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
    14. Guido Lorenzoni, 2008. "Inefficient Credit Booms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 809-833.
    15. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2014. "Procyclical Leverage and Value-at-Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 373-403.
    16. Gennaioli, Nicola & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 2012. "Neglected risks, financial innovation, and financial fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 452-468.
    17. Oehmke, Martin, 2014. "Liquidating illiquid collateral," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 84518, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Frederic Malherbe, 2014. "Self-Fulfilling Liquidity Dry-Ups," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 947-970, April.
    19. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-395, June.
    20. Sebastian Infante & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2020. "The Collateral Link between Volatility and Risk Sharing," NBER Working Papers 28119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. William Diamond, 2020. "Safety Transformation and the Structure of the Financial System," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2973-3012, December.
    22. Marco Del Negro & Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2017. "The Great Escape? A Quantitative Evaluation of the Fed's Liquidity Facilities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(3), pages 824-857, March.
    23. Olivier Jeanne & Anton Korinek, 2020. "Macroprudential Regulation versus mopping up after the crash," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(3), pages 1470-1497.
    24. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1994. "Limited Market Participation and Volatility of Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 933-955, September.
    25. Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2003. "Collateral constraints and the amplification mechanism," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 277-292, August.
    26. Sushant Acharya & Keshav Dogra, 2022. "The Side Effects of Safe Asset Creation," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 581-625.
    27. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Robatto, Roberto, 2019. "Private money creation, liquidity crises, and government interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 42-58.
    28. Grossman, Sanford J, 1988. "An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(3), pages 275-298, July.
    29. Balasko, Yves, 1983. "Extrinsic uncertainty revisited," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 203-210, December.
    30. Chowdhry, Bhagwan & Nanda, Vikram, 1998. "Leverage and Market Stability: The Role of Margin Rules and Price Limits," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(2), pages 179-210, April.
    31. Oehmke, Martin, 2014. "Liquidating illiquid collateral," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 183-210.
    32. Alp Simsek, 2013. "Speculation and Risk Sharing with New Financial Assets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(3), pages 1365-1396.
    33. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369.
    34. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2006. "On the Macroeconomics of Asset Shortages," NBER Working Papers 12753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Thorsten Hens, 2000. "Do Sunspots Matter when Spot Market Equilibria Are Unique?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 435-441, March.
    36. Piero Gottardi & Atsushi Kajii, 1999. "The Structure of Sunspot Equilibria: The Role of Multiplicity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 66(3), pages 713-732.
    37. Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Risk and Liquidity," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199546367.
    38. Basak, Suleyman, 1995. "A General Equilibrium Model of Portfolio Insurance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(4), pages 1059-1090.
    39. Svensson, Lars E O, 1981. "Efficiency and Speculation in a Model with Price-Contingent Contracts," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(1), pages 131-151, January.
    40. Nicolas Caramp, 2021. "Sowing the Seeds of Financial Crises: Endogenous Asset Creation and Adverse Selection," Working Papers 342, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Madalen Castells Jauregui & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Björn Richter & Victoria Vanasco, 2024. "Sectoral Dynamics of Safe Assets in Advanced Economies," Working Papers 1438, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Joseph G. Haubrich, 2023. "Financial Stability: Frontier Risks, a New Normal, and Policy Challenges," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2023(14), pages 1-5, August.
    3. Madalen Castells Jauregui & Dmitry Kuvshinov & Bjoern Richter & Victoria Vanasco, 2024. "Sectoral dynamics of safe assets in advanced economies," Economics Working Papers 1884, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Andrea Ajello & Nina Boyarchenko & François Gourio & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "Financial Stability Considerations for Monetary Policy: Theoretical Mechanisms," Staff Reports 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Thomas M. Eisenbach & Yuliy Sannikov, 2012. "Macroeconomics with Financial Frictions: A Survey," Levine's Working Paper Archive 786969000000000384, David K. Levine.
    4. Sergey Chernenko & Samuel G. Hanson & Adi Sunderam, 2014. "The Rise and Fall of Demand for Securitizations," NBER Working Papers 20777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ansgar Walther, 2014. "Jointly optimal regulation of bank capital and maturity structure," Economics Series Working Papers 725, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Zhiguo He & Péter Kondor, 2016. "Inefficient Investment Waves," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 735-780, March.
    7. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    8. Gertler, M. & Kiyotaki, N. & Prestipino, A., 2016. "Wholesale Banking and Bank Runs in Macroeconomic Modeling of Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1345-1425, Elsevier.
    9. Jiangze Bian & Zhiguo He & Kelly Shue & Hao Zhou, 2018. "Leverage-Induced Fire Sales and Stock Market Crashes," NBER Working Papers 25040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Freixas, Xavier & Perez-Reyna, David, 2021. "Optimal macroprudential policy and rational bubbles," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    11. Christoph Bertsch & Mike Mariathasan, 2021. "Optimal bank leverage and recapitalization in crowded markets," BIS Working Papers 923, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Golec, Pascal & Perotti, Enrico, 2017. "Safe assets: a review," Working Paper Series 2035, European Central Bank.
    13. Gazi I. Kara & S. Mehmet Ozsoy, 2016. "Bank regulation under fire sale externalities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-026, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Wagner, Wolf & Bongaerts, Dion & Mazzola, Francesco, 2021. "Fire Sale Risk and Credit," CEPR Discussion Papers 15798, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Jeanne, Olivier & Korinek, Anton, 2019. "Managing credit booms and busts: A Pigouvian taxation approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 2-17.
    16. Tobias Adrian & Nellie Liang, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Financial Conditions, and Financial Stability," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(1), pages 73-131, January.
    17. Coimbra, Nuno, 2020. "Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    18. Liu, Xuewen & Wang, Pengfei & Yang, Zhongchao, 2024. "Delayed crises and slow recoveries," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    19. Ansgar Walther, 2016. "Jointly Optimal Regulation of Bank Capital and Liquidity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 415-448, March.
    20. Eisenbach, Thomas M., 2017. "Rollover risk as market discipline: A two-sided inefficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 252-269.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Inflation and prices; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:22-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.