IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/iats23/339540.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Agricultural Commodity Market Response to Russia’s Withdrawal from the Grain Deal

Author

Listed:
  • Steinbach, Sandro
  • Yildirim, Yasin

Abstract

This paper assesses the response of agricultural commodity markets to Russia's withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI). Employing daily commodity‐level data and event study methods, we analyse the impact on seven agricultural commodities and four key market metrics, including futures prices, historical and implied volatility, and speculative pressure. Our findings show a statistically insignificant increase of 1.1% in agricultural futures prices within the first seven trading days following the BSGI termination. In the following days, futures prices began to decline, eventually returning to levels below those observed before the withdrawal, a pattern further underscored by our implied volatility analysis. While there is no evidence of heightened speculation, we find some evidence for treatment differences across agricultural commodities. These findings suggest that traders did not believe in the likelihood of a blockade of Black Sea grain shipments.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Steinbach, Sandro & Yildirim, Yasin, 2023. "Agricultural Commodity Market Response to Russia’s Withdrawal from the Grain Deal," 2023: The Future of (Ag-) Trade and Trade Governance in Times of Economic Sanctions and Declining Multilateralism, December 10-12, Clearwater Beach, FL 339540, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:iats23:339540
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.339540
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/339540/files/Session%2018%20Paper%201%20-%20Steinbach.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.339540?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; International Relations/Trade;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:iats23:339540. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://iatrcweb.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.